+45?

For what it's worth, The Field's Al Giordano—who for my money has had the best state-by-state analysis of anyone these last few weeks—looks at the internals of the last SurveyUSA poll before the Chesapeake Regional and advises us to throw caution to the wind:

Although many are saying that Obama will come out of tomorrow with an extra 25 to 30 delegates over Clinton, The Field thinks it will be closer to 45.

The reason: “Safe” Clinton voters are moving rapidly toward “undecided” and are telling pollsters “might change my mind” and as many Virginians, Marylanders and Washingtonians that came to DC to take jobs with them – sixteen years later – begin to show buyer’s remorse, the jig is almost up.

Obviously, Al has never been a Mets fan. But he makes a good case.