Mini-Super Tuesday Predictions

A few predictions for Mini-Super Tuesday and after.

1) Obama will take Vermont handily and Texas comparatively narrowly. He'll lose Ohio by about the same margin as he won Texas, maybe a little more, and he'll lose Rhode Island by a little less than his margin of victory in Vermont.

2) Having beautifully managed the expectations game, again, Clinton will successfully spin this functional tie into a big victory. The long-awaited Obama media backlash will begin in earnest: Why can't Obama seal the deal?

2a) As usual, nobody will remember that she was ahead by huge margins in all these states just a few weeks ago; or that everybody, including her own campaign, has said she needs to win both states by big margins to even have a chance at the nomination; or that with these sorts of slim margins there's really no way for her to ever catch up in the delegate count.

3) Pennsylvania will be declared by acclimation to be the final really final Judgment Day.

3a) Accordingly, the now-expected chorus that Clinton drop out won't actually materialize. Gore in particular will remain silent. Edwards may misread Mini-Super Tuesday as "the turning of the tide" for Hillary and decide to endorse her, thereby destroying his last shred of credibility for all time. Richardson may finally endorse Obama now that it can't actually do Obama any good, but I think he'll probably continue to be a chicken.

4) The race will finally come to an end on April 22nd after Obama wins Pennsylvania, most likely by double digits.