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Tuesday, June 10, 2008

Open Left has a map with Electoral College projections from aggregated state-by-state polling that looks pretty good to me, this far out.

That's 242 EVs (Obama) to 206 EVs (McCain) with 90 toss-ups. The toss-up states are Indiana, Michigan, Missouri, Nebraska-02, New Hampshire, North Dakota, Ohio, Virginia, and Wisconsin. It's pretty hard to imagine that Michigan won't go to Obama in the end, so put those 17 EVs in his column. Now he's at 259, and with Wiconsin a pretty obvious get as well he's already at 269.

(This is why some people in the media are salivating over the possibility of a 269-269 tie, by the way; it's not impossible.)

I think there's actually a fairly sizable chance he could take Nebraska-02, even though that hasn't ever happened, putting him at exactly 270 and in the White House—but let's, you know, play it safe and campaign the hell out of Ohio, Missouri, and Virginia all teh same.

I've been an Obama-blowout-booster for a while now, and despite the difficulties of the Democratic primary I still am. I think Obama has a decent chance of crossing 300 EVs, including a victory in North Carolina if everything really comes together for us.

Obama's people, for what it's worth, agree; he'll be fielding campaign staff in all fifty states.