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Wednesday, September 10, 2008

No one knows how to poll North Carolina. SurveyUSA on Tuesday had McCain suddenly up 20 points after his convention, 58%-38%—but PPP's poll yesterday had Kay Hagan up 1 over Liddy Dole and Obama only down 4. Why the huge discrepancy? Well, for one, the PPP poll includes Bob Barr, but it also has voter identification numbers I just can't believe: 49% Democrat, 36% Republican, 15% independent. The SurveyUSA poll, in contrast, used a likely voter screen that resulted in a 40% Democrat, 41% Republican party ID split—which I'm a bit skeptical of as well.

For what it's worth, PPP did better in the primary, though neither did especially well.

Bush took the state in 2004 by twelve points, so taken together these polls tell us we're either doing much worse or much better, or about the same, as we did then...