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Tuesday, September 02, 2008

USA Today: 50 Obama, McCain 43

CBS News: 48 Obama, McCain 40

Rasmussen: 49 Obama, McCain 46

Gallop: 49 Obama, McCain 43

CNN/OPC: 49 Obama, McCain 48
tremayne at Open Left has a theory about how to read the latest polls.
But look at how consistent Obama's number is at 49 plus or minus 1 while McCain's number ranges from 40 to 48 and the "undecideds/others" range from 3 to 12 percent. This could be random chance but I have another theory to propose.

Obama's support is more solid and certain and therefore less contingent on variation in the polling method. No matter how they worded the question, about 49 percent were pretty sure the answer was "Obama." The inconsistency in the McCain and undecided numbers could be the result of "soft support" which is therefore pushed in one way (McCain) or the other (undecided) based on question wording. This theory is supported by the many polls which have found more certainty and enthusiasm among Obama supporters compared to McCain supporters. Now 49 isn't 50 but the firmness of that number in recent polling is a good sign.