My blog has moved!

You should be automatically redirected to the new home page in 60 seconds. If not, please visit
and be sure to update your bookmarks. Sorry about the inconvenience.

Thursday, October 02, 2008

That map from down the page is not just my usual wishful thinking—as Nate Silver of projects, "if you only give Obama the states he is projected to win by more than five points, that is enough to get him an Electoral College tie, which is essentially the same as a win."

Nate goes on to say:

As of this morning before today's polls update, we project Obama victories in Virginia (4.4%), New Hampshire (3.4%), Ohio (2.4%), Florida (2.4%), and Nevada (2.1%), with Indiana a tie. Give all these states to McCain, it’s 269-269 and an Obama presidency. Allocated by lead, it’s Obama 338, McCain 189, 11 tossup. McCain also projects precarious wins in North Carolina (0.1%) and Missouri (0.4%).

This does not include ground game, which is about the effectiveness of each side turning out voters who are reporting their presidential preferences over the phone to pollsters. Nor do all pollsters effectively capture the cellphone effect.
This makes john's bet with his dad that Obama will hit 270 before the polls in California close look at least possible. If Obama takes NH and all the big swing states and one of NC, IN, and MO NC or IN and MO, he's at 271 without WA, OR, NV, or CA. (UPDATE: Whoops! I was counting Hawaii.)

Don't get overconfident, get to work.