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Wednesday, October 22, 2008

Six reasons Obama will win at National Journal Online, via

1. No candidate this far back two weeks out has ever won.
2. Early voting is going strong and even if something big happens, those votes are already cast.
3. The Democrats have a 10% advantage in party registration; in 2004 it was even.
4. Obama is outspending McCain 4 to 1 in many states.
5. There is no evidence for the so-called Bradley effect in the past 15 years.
6. Obama is safe in all the Kerry states and ahead in half a dozen states Bush won.
I remember the glorious afternoon and heartbreaking evening of November 2, 2004, well enough to know not to count America's chickens before they come home to roost.