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Monday, June 01, 2009

Kevin Drum has your chart of the day depicting the latest poll data on the demographic implosion of the Republican Party, while Steve Benen shamelessly trolls for a "Canavan bump" with a Counting Crows reference on the same subject. More on this from Kos, Yglesias, TPM, and Open Left, which notes:

The nation still moving away from Republicans demographically, too. It can't be emphasized enough that Michael Dukakis would have won the 2008 election. His exit polls of 40% among whites, 89% among African-Americans, and 70% among Latinos is enough to reach 50%+1 now, even in the event that African-American turnout was only 12% of the vote instead of 13%. That is an 8% shift toward Democrats in just twenty years, leading to a crude rate of 0.5% a year, or 2% every four years. Demographic trends are so bad for Republicans that Dukakis would be able to win a landslide in 2012. That's pretty bad.
That's pretty striking.