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Saturday, June 13, 2009

Following up on Vu's link in the comments to a pre-election poll showing a sizable Ahmadinejad lead, here's Nate Silver arguing that the much-trumpeted linear graph doesn't by itself prove election fraud. But as Nate's commenters point out, alphabetizing final state-by-state results flattens out exactly the sorts of discontinuities (regional and otherwise) we would expect to see in partial, real-time election results—rendering Nate's demonstration somewhat unpersuasive. There's also this news, via Andrew Sullivan: the president of Iran's electoral monitoring commission has declared the results invalid, and Ayatollah Ali Akbar Hashemi-Rafsanjani has resigned his position on the Expediency Council.