PPP backs up my speculation that rain in North Carolina is good news for the good guys.

PPP projects that [Obama] racked up a lead of a little over 250,000 voters during early voting. He led 55-45 among those who said they had already voted in our poll, and a little over 2.5 million North Carolinians have already cast their ballots.

But among those planning to vote on election day John McCain leads 56-42. It is always better to have actual votes than hypothetical votes so there's no doubt Obama has the edge right now—the question is just whether enough of those McCain supporters really turn out to make up the gap.

Like rain on election day: bad weather forecast for North Carolin and Virginia tomorrow. Given the well-documented enthusiasm gap and (in North Carolina) the staggering early voting numbers, my guess is that the rain benefits our side...

Just out over the wires: People sheltering at ground level at Galveston Bay when Hurricane Ike hits face "certain death," the weather service warns.