Dem Primary Update

The competing moral claims for the Democratic nomination realigned a bit this weekend as we got our first evidence of Obama's coattails: the surprise victory of Bill Foster in a special election for Dennis Hastert's congressional seat. Obama cut an ad for Foster and gave him access to his Illinois organization, and so Foster's victory is a victory for Obama too, providing good evidence for the superdelegates that Obama can do exactly what he says he can do in terms of making the Democrats a 50-state party again.

It's also a nice little irony that the girl in the much-ballyhooed "3 a.m." ad turns out to be 17 now and an Obama precinct captain.

The Wyoming caucus was this weekend, too, and as expected Obama won it by over twenty points—but the major contest continues to be Pennsylvania. If Obama can win there, Clinton drops out. If Obama loses there, even if it's really really close, Clinton probably stays in until the convention, and things start to get really interesting awful.

As I've said, I have every confidence that Obama will be the nominee either way: Clinton can't catch up in pledged delegates, and the superdelegates won't overturn the will of the voters no matter what sort of spin war the Clintons wage in the press.

But it would be so much easier if he just wins Pennsylvania. I'm calling on my vast Pennsylvania fanbase* to make that happen.

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* I call it a "fanbase" now so you can't tell it's just one person. But seriously, Neil, knock on some doors.