Virginia

The new SurveyUSA poll puts Obama up 6 (!) in Virgnia, 51% to 45%. (Looking at the trend and the internals, I think it's fair to say that those pay equity ads should be airing nationwide.) I've been a VA booster for months because the fact is that without Virginia, McCain just can't win; taking the states which Obama seems to have locked down (the Kerry states - NH + IA + NM), he just needs nine more for a tie (which he wins) and ten for an outright victory.

So flipping either Colorado or Virginia, by themselves, is enough, provided he doesn't slip in Michigan or Pennsylvania—and right now he's ahead in all four...