As anyone on the Twitter knows, health care reform passed the House tonight, albeit with a terrible last-minute abortion amendment supported by 64 Democrats desperately in need of a primary challenge. MetaFilter's "welcome to the mid-twentieth century" snark aside, it's a pretty good day to be a Democrat. 218 to pass + 1 for good measure + 1 surprise Republican vote; if Harry Reid does his job half as well as Pelosi we're in good shape.

Midday links while I wonder whether tonight's elections will go long or short.

* Open Left wisely points out that today's elections don't really tell us anything about national politics while Kos's Jed Lawson pre-spin takes a different tack in arguing that Owens wins even if he loses. Steve Benen points out that a district in California that is essentially a mirror image of NY-23—historically very Democratic, though significantly less one-sided than NY-23's century-and-a-half Republican streak—is having a special election tonight that doesn't count (UPDATE: Think Progress, too), while TPM debunks in advance the bogus assertions of electoral fraud already erupting anywhere Republicans could lose tonight.

* Virginia is never enough: McDonnell 2012? Really? Even Sarah Palin managed to serve a few months before seeking national office.

* Reid too is saying there's no deal with Lieberman. Maybe not anymore.

* Why do humans kiss? To spread our germs.

* A brief history of innoculation.

* And MetaFilter wishes happy birthday to Sputnik and the Blob while saying goodbye to Claude Lévi-Strauss and Laika the dog.

Harry Reid's office is telling people Reid and Lieberman have a "private understanding" regarding cloture on health care:

The unpredictable Democrat-turned-Independent last week publicly stated he would join Republicans in filibustering the Democratic legislation after Reid (D-Nev.) announced he had included a government-run health insurance plan in the bill.

But sources said Reid's staff is telling liberal interest groups that Lieberman (Conn.) has assured Reid he will vote with Democrats in the necessary procedural vote to end debate, perhaps with intentions to change the bill.

"At the end of the day Sen. Lieberman will vote to cut off debate," said Richard Kirsch, national campaign manager of Healthcare for America Now. "He'll do what he has to do. He's making a lot of noise."

Take it for what it's worth.

UPDATE: Lieberman's office: "Senator Lieberman's clear position is that he will vote for the motion to proceed to the health-care bill because he supports health-care reform that will control costs and insure people who don't have it now, but will oppose cloture on a final bill if it contains a public option."

Nobody's talking about it,, but at least the ambitious senior senator from Pennsylvania, Arlen Specter, hasn't forgotten about reconciliation.

SPECTER: Well as I have said I would consider that as a last, last, last, resort. I think that the institutional safeguard of 60 votes is a very important one. … [M]oving away from that institutional 60 votes is something I think would be a last, last, last resort. You might have to fight fire with fire when there are so many filibusters. The number is now 81. And a lot of nominations are being blocked and action is being blocked. …

On the issue of fighting fire with fire, maybe so, but I think that we are not going to come to this. I think we can muster the 60 votes and not have to face the reconciliation.

Q: Senator if I have this correctly, as a last resort, you would not oppose using reconciliation…

SPECTER: As a last, last, last, resort I would consider it, yeah.

I guess I missed it, but apparently Reid called it an "option" at the big press conference on Monday as well. Glad to see it.

The big news yesterday was, of course, Joe Lieberman's threat to join the Republican filibuster on the health care bill, proving right my suspicion of everything that guy does. Never a popular figure in the progressive blogosphere, Lieberman is especially loathed today; see Steve Benen, Open Left, Steve Benen, Nate Silver, Steve Benen, Kos, and Steve Benen, for starters. I confess that Jonathan Chait's take is pretty close to my own:

He's not a Democrat and won't be running on the Democratic ticket in 2012. Moreover, my read on him is that he's furious with the party, resentful of President Obama (who beat his friend in 2008) and would relish a Democratic catastrophe.

Lieberman strikes me as a creature of spite with a long list of enemies, and I think he'd happily be the lone vote to scuttle the sixty-year dream of health care reform if he thought it would hurt Ned Lamont voters. I've never trusted him as a reliable vote and I question the wisdom of continually bending over backwards to keep him "happy" when it makes no apparent difference in his actions. The man spoke at the Republican National Convention, for heaven's sake. He's not on our side.

For what it's worth, Ezra Klein says it's probably a bluff, and I hope he's right.

Sadly, Lieberman's threats are emboldening the other conservative Democrats to make similar threats.

I sure hope reconciliation is still in the tank if Reid's miscalculated.

Credit to Harry Reid, a person to whom I rarely give credit: a public option (albeit with opt-out) will be in the final Senate bill. Schumer is happy. Dodd is happy. Rockerfeller is happy. Gibbs says Obama is happy. Josh Marshall is happy. Durbin says the progressive wing made it happen. And Max Baucus is on-board. In fact, Open Left's whip count suggests that Reid has sixty votes for cloture, with only Blanche Lincoln still publicly non-commital.

It's being reported today that Reid's bill is ready and is being sent to the CBO for budget impact. Here's the Wall Street Journal on its likely contours:

Details of the legislation could change, but its broad outlines are becoming clear. Employers with more than 50 workers wouldn't be required to provide health insurance, but they would face fines of up to $750 per employee if even part of their work force received a government subsidy to buy health insurance, this person said. A bill passed by the Senate Finance Committee had a lower fine of up to $400 per employee.

The bill to be brought to the Senate floor would create a new public health-insurance plan, but would give states the choice of opting out of participating in it, a proposal that Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid of Nevada backed last week.

Of course, in the kabuki dance that is the American legislative process, neither this bill nor the House bill will actually become law, but rather the House/Senate conference bill, which will be some sort of amalgamation between the two.

For more on this subject, Steve Benen has another post this morning concerning cloture, suggesting Ben Nelson and Blanche Lincoln are the holdouts. As far as I know Evan Bayh is still uncommitted as well. Stay tuned.

Wednesday night quadruple threat.

* Maybe my favorite science story ever: A pair of otherwise distinguished physicists have suggested that the hypothesized Higgs boson, which physicists hope to produce with the collider, might be so abhorrent to nature that its creation would ripple backward through time and stop the [Large Hadron Collider] before it could make one, like a time traveler who goes back in time to kill his grandfather. I love this story so much I don't care that they're only half-serious.

* Why Are Insurers Exempt From Antitrust Laws? Ezra Klein investigates in light of Harry Reid's statements on the Senate floor today.

* Wes responds to his FMF critics. (Via Eli Glasner)

* One thing that's being lost in all this discussion of the Saudi proposal that oil-producing nations be compensated for declines in oil demand is, as Jaimee reported for the Indy not that long ago, energy companies in the U.S. want the same thing.

All that's left of health care reform is a collection of piece-of-shit, weakling proposals that are preposterously expensive and contain almost nothing meaningful — and that set of proposals, meanwhile, is being negotiated down even further by the endlessly negating Group of Six. It is a fight to the finish now between Really Bad and Even Worse. And it's virtually guaranteed to sour the public on reform efforts for years to come.

Matt Taibbi in Rolling Stone on health care reform and total system failure in American politics. I'm more hopeful than others that the "trigger" compromise may actually provide the necessary political cover to get a postdated public option enacted—but not that hopeful. In any event it's out of our hands now. We heard from Pelosi and Reid today; we'll see what Obama has to say tomorrow.

I would be heartened by these sinking Harry Reid poll numbers—perhaps finally the Democrats can get a real Majority Leader—if I had any confidence that the Dems wouldn't go and put someone like Ben Nelson in charge. This is a no-brainer, folks: the Senate majority leader should be a dyed-in-the-wool, take-no-prisoners liberal from an incredibly safe seat in New England, not twist-in-the-wind compromisers from swing states with skin-of-your-teeth electoral margins. Mind-blowing, I know. You don't see Republicans giving Snowe, Collins, or Specter positions in the leadership.

...Oh God. They're going to make Specter Majority Leader, aren't they.

"Burris likely to be seated," says the Page. Here, I suspect, is why: with Franken likely tied up in lawsuits for a while they need Burris to get an extra ten committee slots. However it shakes out, you've got to admire Harry Reid's continued anti-Midas touch; the man can turn anything into a lose-lose situation.

UPDATE: Reid is out in front to prolong the agony. He says there's actually no deal yet and forcefully adds "I have not yet begun to be humiliated." Well done, sir.

No Democratic incumbent has been voted out of the Senate in the last two cycles, the first time this has been accomplished since the direct election of senators was established in 1908. MyDD asks the obvious question: can the Dems three-peat? The prognosis is good, as only Nevada's Harry Reid seems especially vulnerable and his state just went blue.

Meanwhile, Salon has tough talk for the GOP.

The painful truth for conservatives is that the dogs aren't eating their dog food -- and every national trend indicates that they will never eat it again. Which means the GOP faces a wrenching choice: remain true to its increasingly irrelevant and rejected ideology and fade into political insignificance, or remake itself as essentially a more moderate version of the Democratic Party.

...

In the coming years we will witness a war between conservatism's pragmatists and its true believers. If the pragmatists win, America will have finally arrived at the era of broad political consensus that pundits erroneously forecast after Lyndon Johnson's demolition of Barry Goldwater in 1964. If the true believers win, we may witness a Palin candidacy in 2012 -- and a likely electoral landslide that will bury the GOP so deeply it may never dig out.

The Daily Show on the bailout. I say "this is the best thing The Daily Show has ever done" a little too regularly for comfort, but the montage work they do here is really top-notch—not just the John McCain section, which is classic, but also the Senate and the senatorial self-congratulation sections, which are also classic.

Congressional approval falls to single digits for the first time ever. Pretty amazing, but just about right: people didn't put the Democrats in charge so they could keep rolling over on everything, they put the Democrats in charge because Bush drove the country off a cliff and they finally got sick of it. To whom is the Pelosi/Reid strategy of perpetual appeasement supposed to be appealing? The activists and party-line Democrats hate it; swing voters don't want it; and Republicans will hate them anyway no matter what they do. I'm surprised they found 9% of people willing to say that they like anything about what's going on.

UPDATE: This impacts the FISA issue, too. The Congressional leadership owns this debacle, not Obama; it's utterly insane to expect a presidential candidate to humiliate himself losing a fight with his own caucus.