Weirdest night ever: Former President Bill Clinton and George W. Bush will square off on the same stage at Radio City Music Hall in February as part of a series pitting liberal and conservative thinkers. Prediction? Pain.

Obama roasts his new chief of staff, c. 2005. See also: synchronized debating.

Get the latest news satire and funny videos at 236.com.

Jeff from Syntax of Things nails the prediction thread for 2008, calling the electoral threshold (Obama with 364 EVs) exactly and missing the popular vote spread by only 2%. His prize: our undying respect. Well done, Jeff!

UPDATE: Neil asks for (and receives) deserved credit for his second-place finish. Well done, Neil. Can NeilThirtyEight.com be far behind?

Newsweek has the first of the great campaign postmortems, including new tidbits on the even-worse-than-previously-thought Sarah Palin shopping spree and even an F-bomb from BHO. A few highlights from the highlights:

* Palin launched her attack on Obama's association with William Ayers, the former Weather Underground bomber, before the campaign had finalized a plan to raise the issue. McCain's advisers were working on a strategy that they hoped to unveil the following week, but McCain had not signed off on it, and top adviser Mark Salter was resisting.

Palin goin' rogue goes a long way towards explaining why the McCain camp never seemed to know what it was trying to do with Ayers.

* McCain also was reluctant to use Obama's incendiary pastor, the Rev. Jeremiah Wright, as a campaign issue. The Republican had set firm boundaries: no Jeremiah Wright; no attacking Michelle Obama; no attacking Obama for not serving in the military. McCain balked at an ad using images of children that suggested that Obama might not protect them from terrorism. Schmidt vetoed ads suggesting that Obama was soft on crime (no Willie Hortons). And before word even got to McCain, Schmidt and Salter scuttled a "celebrity" ad of Obama dancing with talk-show host Ellen DeGeneres (the sight of a black man dancing with a lesbian was deemed too provocative).

WTF?

* The debates unnerved both candidates. When he was preparing for them during the Democratic primaries, Obama was recorded saying, "I don't consider this to be a good format for me, which makes me more cautious. I often find myself trapped by the questions and thinking to myself, 'You know, this is a stupid question, but let me … answer it.' So when Brian Williams is asking me about what's a personal thing that you've done [that's green], and I say, you know, 'Well, I planted a bunch of trees.' And he says, 'I'm talking about personal.' What I'm thinking in my head is, 'Well, the truth is, Brian, we can't solve global warming because I f---ing changed light bulbs in my house. It's because of something collective'."

Ladies and gentlemen, the president of the United States.

UPDATE: Part I of the article is now up.

SNL on Joe the Plumber.

A debate McCain can win? Both presidential candidates attended the Al Smith dinner this year, a rare occasion for elites to drop the pretense of real antagonism between pro-corporate plutocrats of different parties, much less the media millionaires who happily transcribe their every lie.

Both candidates were funny, but McCain was really in his element, and won more good will from me in this fifteen-minute segment than anything else he's done in eight years.

Last night in pictures.



My cheap shot for the day.

An absolutely devastating blow for John McCain: it appears Joe the Plumber isn't registered to vote. All that hard work securing his vote, wasted!

It's been said before, but Kos is absolutely right: these instapolls have been a tremendously important bulwark against the neverending bullshit of the pundit class. They've been so devastating, in fact, to the fine art of pro-Republican spin—an art which went a long way towards giving us eight years of Bush—that I genuinely wonder whether we'll see them again in 2012. I sure hope we do.

Joe the Plumber live on CBS with Katie Couric. Text here.

CNN Poll is in: 58-31.

Hillary keeps calling him "President Obama." I guess she thinks it's over?

Joe the Plumber still undecided. Tough news for McCain, who was working overtime tonight for the guy's vote.

CBS: Obama dominates.

53% said Obama won; 22% said John McCain won.

Look for the media spin to shift immediately as a result, as it has in the wake of the last three debates.

Hillary on CNN.

Steve Benen agrees with me that this was a very bad night for McCain.

In a more general sense, if tonight was McCain's big "last chance" for a game-changing performance, it was a missed opportunity. Opinions will no doubt vary widely, but I thought this was the worst of McCain's three debate performances. On the substance, McCain had nothing new to offer. On his demeanor, McCain seemed angry and dismissive (did anyone count how many eye-rolls we saw?). On rhetoric, he was clumsy and repetitious.

What's more, McCain positioned himself as a far-right Republican at precisely the time Americans want to move away from far-right Republicans. How did McCain present himself to Americans? As an anti-abortion, pro-voucher conservative who wants to slash federal spending and talk about how mean television ads and t-shirts hurt his feelings.

Obama has cornered the market on stature, temperament, and control. Where McCain was nasty, Obama was unflappable. Where McCain was angry, Obama was confident. On the substance, Obama was on message, and just as importantly, made personal connections on the issues he cared about.

I also noticed that Obama seemed to go out of his way to appeal to centrists and independents. While McCain reached out to his base on abortion and vouchers, Obama sought out middle ground on practically every issue.

In the first debate, it seemed to me that Obama won on points. In the second, Obama won by taking control. Tonight, Obama practically won by default -- McCain had an off night when he needed a big win. Watching the two, it seemed to me that Obama is ready to lead, and just out-classed his over-matched rival.

Obama wins focus groups on CNN and Fox. No polls yet.

Ambinder, who repeats the nonsense claim that McCain might have won on points, goes on to say points don't matter.

And tonight, we saw a McXplosion. Every single attack that Sen. McCain has ever wanted to make, he took the opportunity tonight to make. Around 30 minutes in, McCain seemed to surrender the debate to his frustrations, making it seem as if he just wanted the free television.

His substance suffered; it didn't make sense at times. He seemed personally offended by negative ads; he tried to make a point about Obama's character, but all the sleight were those Obama allegedly inflicted on Obama: the town halls, campaign finance, negative ads, etc. He allowed himself to get caught up in his own grievances. It was just plain unattractive on television. He moved quickly from William Ayers to taxes without a transition. From Obama's opposition to trade agreements to taxes. No intermediate steps. Blizzards of words without unifying strings.

The partisans want their candidates to say things that will make the self-same partisans feel good. So when McCain gets angry, lots of Republicans say: "Right on ya! " as if persuadable voters are looking at the world through McCain's eyes and harboring the same grudges and feeling offended by the same.

CNN's about to have Hillary on. That should be brutal.

CNN has 57 people on screen at once. What the hell?

Rachel Maddow is absolutely on fire tonight.

Here's the abortion exchange from Debate Hub. Very, very bad flub by McCain.



Rachel's response was awesome -- McCain's enthusiasm for the debate faded about halfway through, turning angry and sputtering. Points to what will surely be the moment of the night: the ridicule of the "health of the mother."

Post-debate thread. Obama won in a huge way from where I'm sitting -- can't wait to see the CNN and CBS polls.

New thread.

10:30 Obama promises his tireless effort -- for the children.

Bob channels his mother and tells us to go out and vote, "it'll make us feel big and strong." McCain comes over to Obama immediately, shakes his hand, and says very loudly, "good job, good job." Trying not to show any more contempt, I guess.

10:27 On the special needs issue, while McCain rambles: Jaimee and Sweet Caroline both say that McCain keeps saying that Palin's son has autism, rather than Down's Syndrome. I got the impression that he was trying to speak to special needs generally and autism parents in particular, but I may be wrong on that, and he may have actually flubbed the issue.

I'm also seeing evidence of a huge "gender gap" on the CNN instant-response panels—McCain's horrible "health of the mother" rant has to be a big part of that.

10:27 Final statements: McCain first.

10:19 How many reporters are looking for Joe the Plumber tonight? Who will find him first? UPDATE: Yup.

10:16 ... as a threat to national security? Uh, sure.

10:16 Education.

10:14 McCain attacks the notion of the "health of the mother," accusing Obama of speaking in code. That's what he's going to go with? He hates the health of mothers? Going down in flames.

10:12 And Obama again, using basic common sense, rebuts the lies. Story of the night.

10:11 McCain spits on equal pay for equal work, accuses Obama of infanticide. Is it smart to make these attacks when Obama's right there next to you and gets to rebut everything you say?

10:10 Obama announces his support for Roe v. Wade, then pivots to Lilly Ledbetter and equal pay for equal work.

10:08 McCain approaches this question as a senator, not as the guy who will actually be making the choice.

10:05 Abortion! But only as a litmus test.

10:04 John McCain says transplants are a Cadillac-style luxury. We think he meant "implants." This is a debacle.

10:03 Why are we still talking about Joe?

10:02 Obama does, in fact, hit health care out of the park.

10:01 Obama lays out his fine: $0. McCain is angry about this.

9:59 Another slow pitch, Obama. $5,000 tax credit. Ridiculously bad policy. This is easy.

9:58 McCain wants to give everybody $5,000 tax credit. Even Joe the Plumber.

9:55 New topic: Health care. Control health-care costs or expand health-care coverage? Naturally, "we can do both."

9:54 Obama on fire with the facts and figures tonight -- he's destroying McCain on the competence gap. McCain, as Kevin Drum says, just lurches from attack to attack.

9:53 Obama continually has to deflect McCain's bullshit. Every exchange has the same flow: McCain says something crazy dishonest, Obama calmly retorts, rinse and reeat.

9:50 McCain calls Obama Clintonian. But is the drill-baby-drill oil dead in the face of the collapsing price of oil? Oil's well under $100 a barrel right now, and under $3 a gallon in a lot of states.

9:48 Obama wins energy, too. This has got to be brutal for McCain supporters to watch.

9:47 McCain refuses to answer another question, gets in a jab that puts him on the wrong side of NAFTA to boot.

9:46 Energy! Climate change! Put Bob Schieffer in charge of every debate.

9:44 Obama pivots back against the spending freeze on the special-needs-family issue. That was deadly.

9:43 McCain: Sarah Palin should be president because she understands special-needs families. Hmm?

9:42 From Christ, I Need A Drink in the comments: "I have to say, I'm liking Bob Schieffer as moderator a heck of a lot more than Brokaw." Me, too.

9:42 "Americans have gotten to know Sarah Palin." Yeah, that's kind of your problem, dude.

9:41 Obama: Biden rocks hard.

9:40 Why would the country be better off if Biden became president than Sarah Palin? (And vice versa.)

9:39 McCain is angrily demanding more details, then pivots back to claiming that *his* focus is on the economy. Obama just laughs.

9:38 McCain's campaign is imploding as we speak. This was a huge tactical mistake for him.

9:36 Obama responds: "Mr. Ayers has become the centerpiece of McCain's campaign." Professor. 40 years ago. Eight years old. Reagan. Presidents of University of Illinois and Northwestern University. Nailed.

ACORN: "Had nothing to do with us."

9:36 ACORN! The fabric of democracy is at state!

9:35 McCain brings up Ayers!

9:33 John McCain's feelings have also been hurt by a number of offensive T-shirts at Obama rallies. What are we talking about here? This is ridiculous.

9:32 McCain: "I'm proud of the people who come to our rallies." Really? Really?

9:31 Obama hits the Palin rallies, hard. McCain continues to look like he's five seconds away from meltdown.

9:30 McCain trying to portray himself as the aggrieved party here is completely absurd. Is anyone buying this?

9:29 McCain looks like he's about to blow his top.

9:27 Obama also hurt McCain's feelings w.r.t. to public financing. Obama says that the American public doesn't care about McCain's hurt feelings, and hell yes to that.

9:26 Now McCain accuses John Lewis of hurting his feelings. Poor guy.

9:25 McCain says that Obama should have accepted the town halls. What a loser.

9:24 Where's the high road? Will you say to each other's face what you've said in your ads?

9:22 "When have you ever stood up to your party?" Obama starts listing off Democratic constituencies he's pissed off. Interesting response, not necessarily what I would have gone with. Then he starts to list areas in which McCain and Bush are indistinguishable—that response I like.

9:21 McCain declares he's not President Bush. Interesting. I did not know that.

9:20 The one-half-of-one-percent line is better than a hard number, though.

9:19 Damnit, Obama, just say it: You don't cut spending in a recession.

9:18 McCain is having a terrible night, already. Rambling, constantly off-message -- he looks like he's about to burst.

9:17 McCain hits this spending freeze nonsense again. Obama, it's a soft-pitch over the plate: YOU DON'T CUT SPENDING IN A RECESSION.

9:16 Amazingly, McCain *doesn't* want to talk about spending. He's back to talking about houses. Even Bob won't stand for it.

9:15 While they talk about the same boring stuff for the third boring time, here's a post on the rules from Ben Smith, with some interesting consequences on whether it makes sense for McCain to go negative tonight:

"It's a huge mistake in a sit-down debate to attack or be snarky," he said. He said that talking about an opponent's negatives can be done if the moderator prompts it, "but to self generate it is very difficult in a sit-down debate"

"It would be a big mistake for McCain do do the Ayers stuff, the Acorn stuff," he said.

9:13 Bob mercifully saves us from the tax bullshit. Unfortunately, it's only to plunge us deep into the spending bullshit.

9:11 Sweet Caroline is sick of Joe the Plumber already. So say we all.

9:10 McCain calls Obama a communist -- Obama wants to "spread the wealth around." Calls Obama a tax-raiser again, for the millionth time.

9:09 Obama: "Joe's been watching some ads of Sen. McCain's. Here's what I'm actually gonna do." The audience laughs—it's a good line.

9:07 McCain tries to play a random swing voter against Obama, promising some guy named Joe he'll help him buy a business. Just 100,000,000 more voters to go.

9:06 Obama hits his usual points, talking directly to the camera with his four principles for the economy.

The problem with these debates, incidentally, has been that neither of them is really able to disagree with the other about the big issue -- "fix the economy" -- and so the discussion immediately dissolves into platitudes.

9:05 McCain plays his usual 'X is in the hospital tonight' card -- tonight it's Nancy Reagan -- and then immediately begins to ramble.

He also said "Freddie Mae," but that's neither here nor there.

9:03 How will you fix the stock market?



9:02 Oh, good, they're both sitting tonight. That'll keep the energy up.

9:00 Here we go. There's a lot of anticipation that tonight is the night that McCain either goes massively negative OR completely loses his shit, or perhaps both. Meanwhile, I find this tidbit from Ezra Klein intriguing:

Campbell Brown just said that John McCain called Hillary Clinton for debate advice today. Huh.

Maaaaaybe she wasn't the best person to call.

Debate #3 liveblog!

TPM has the leaked video of John McCain's debate prep.

Post-post-game, they're crying on FreeRepublic and The Corner (see especially 1, 2). They saw what the polls and what the pundits saw: another clear win for the already leading Democrats, with the first real and potentially seriously damaging debate gaffe coming out of their own guy's mouth.

What I find really fascinating, though, is the continued insistence on right-wing sites that none of this is Sarah Palin's fault. Some of the posts at the Corner are even calling for her to start running a shadow candidacy against Obama for 2012 (and in fairness it seems to me that's exactly what she's been trying to do since the VP debate). But are you joking? Not only will she go down in history as the absolute worst VP selection ever, eclipsing Quayle and even Eagleton in terms of damage done to the ticket, but she's a walking talking national punchline. I hope she does run in 2012, because I'd really like to see Obama's reelection bid cross 500 EVs. But Republicans should hope she goes back to Alaska and never comes out.

CNN poll:

Who did the best job? 54 Obama - 30 McCain
Favorable/Unfavorable: Obama's numbers go up slightly (about a +8 swing), while McCain's remain completely unchanged.

TPM is talking about a possible moment that threatens to crowd out even "That One"—McCain refusing to shake Obama's hand after the debate. Josh isn't sure yet if that's what happened.

Obama wins the CBS snap poll.

Obama: 39%
McCain: 27%

Minds changed: 15% Obama, 14% McCain

Who can handle the Economy: McCain: 41% before, 49% after
Obama 54% before - 68% after

Understand your problems: Obama 60 before -80% after
Prepared to be President: Obama 42% before - 57% after

Chris Matthews says "Barack Obama is gifted in a birth by a wonderful smile." For Matthews, power is the ultimate aphrodisiac.

They're crying at the Corner.

Mike T and Michael Crowley feel the same pressing absence: Where's Bill Ayers? Isn't the fact that Obama lives in the same city as Ayers the most pressing issue of our time?

Obama wins the MSNBC Philly-voter focus group by a big margin.

Ezra Klein:

Tonight was supposed to be John McCain's night, but it was the first clear debate win Obama has scored over the course of this campaign -- including the primary. McCain, as it turned out, was badly disadvantaged by the format. The debate was more physical than previous encounters. The candidates were mobile, as were the cameras. And McCain, for reasons of age and injuries and height, has a less commanding physical presence than Obama. He's stiff and awkward. The constantly shifting cameras featured a number of behind-the-shoulder shots, which highlighted his thinning hair and hunched posture. The combination left McCain looking ill at ease, while Obama seemed in control of the space. It was the clearest Nixon-to-Kennedy contrast we've seen.

That's backed up by an email I got during the debate:

I wonder if McCain's ever done a town hall with non-supporters before.

Maybe he's got a program memory of getting more and more hopped up in these "intimate" settings as the friendly crowd slurps up more and more of his maverick catnip.

Against a backdrop of mounting affection, the neurological striptease he's doing might make sense, but in the neutral setting it's unsettling in the extreme.

Neil:

The CNN panel of "experts" seemed to give the edge to Obama. Wolf Blitzer also says they'll have their insta-poll in a few minutes.
Neil | Edit comment Delete comment | 10.07.08 - 10:52 pm | #

Buchanan: McCain won on points!

Maddow and Buchanan agree that Obama won by being a "cool customer," with Maddow elaborating that he won by conducting himself as if McCain weren't there. I think there's something to that.

Per Ambinder, "That One" is already on YouTube. Big mistake for McCain, I suspect—crystalizes the growing sense that McCain has contempt for Obama.



She also says my prediction below is already bearing fruit: "they both held their own." - npr

kate w notices they're f'ing with our heads: michelle's wearing red and cindy's wearing blue!

Pclem has your "My friends" count: I counted 17 "My friends," but I feel quite certain I missed a couple.

New thread for the post-game analysis. It's absolutely clear to me that Obama won that thing—McCain was rarely good and often absolutely terrible. Prediction: the pundits will assert that McCain won—perhaps on "points"—before switching opinions completely in the face of snap polls that show another big victory of Obama.

That's it. New thread.

McCain gets the last word: he graciously admits that he doesn't know the future.

Obama points to Michelle and makes a golly-gee husband joke that seems to go over well with the audience. Obama dodges the question and goes back to his biography, hits his usual closing statement riff.

Question What don't you know, and how will you learn it?

The "talks" issue is also a foolish fight for McCain to have started. Obama's position is infinitely more reasonable here, just plain commonsense.

McCain hits the "We can never allow another Holocaust" line again, for the third or fourth time tonight. Someone's worried about Florida...

Ezra Klein echoes Jeff in my comments:

10:19: It's remarkable that McCain can accuse Barack Obama of abrogating basic tenets of sound global leadership by promising to kill bin Laden but when asked about Russia, says that he looks at Putin and sees nothing but "KGB." The score card appears to be that Obama will prosecute the hunt for al Qaeda while McCain will restart the Cold War. Which sounds more responsible to you?

Question: Hypothetical question from a veteran about whether or not we'd support Israel if Iran attacked it. McCain goes over to shake the man's hands, a cheap moment that is nonetheless the first genuinely empathetic moment he's managed all night.

Question: This is a yes or no question: Is Russia under Putin an evil empire? Ryan says: Whaaaaaat? McCain says "Maybe." This was really a question?

I'm seeing word on some blogs that the RNC is preemptively spinning this as "not a real town hall debate." That means they think McCain's losing.

Question: How do we pressure Russia to be more excellent?

Then it's more surge surge surge.

McCain lights another candle in the Church of St. Petraeus.

Question: Afghanistan.

McCain is really on the defensive here—he's spooked on both the bomb-bomb-bomb-bomb-bomb-Iran issue as well as the fact that he's "will follow Osama to the gates of hell but not to the cave where he lives." Tries to claim the bomb-Iran song was a joke, tries to claim he'd cross the Pakistan border to get bin Laden too. He's crashing and burning tonight.

Obama demands a follow-up, this time he gets it. This is such a ridiculous fight for McCain to have picked—it gives Obama the chance to be a tough guy. He also gets to embarrass McCain on the warmongering statements in his past. Very nice use of the demanded follow-up.

Comments are alive with the notion that

1) blood is our most precious national resource
2) McCain has more than one hero.

McCain tries to back-peddle on this Pakistan issue as something you don't say, not something he wouldn't do. Weak.

Question: Should the United States chase al Qaeda into Pakistan? The question is framed as a no-win: either you break sovereignty a la Cambodia during Vietnam, or you let al Qaeda escape into Pakistan. But this, of course, is just a mask for a question with an easy answer: invade Pakistan, kill bin Laden, and sweep up the pieces later. This is what Obama (eventually) says.

McCain rambles and rambles on this question too. He tries to tie it into the surge, but fails.

McCain, like all American politicians, loves interventionism, but not all interventionism.

Brokaw: What is the Obama Doctrine for the use of force without direct national security interest? Obama, like all American politicians, loves interventionism, but not all interventionism.

There's a funny arms race going on with breaking the time limits. Each time, each person stretches it just a little further.

My commenters don't like "Greatest force for good in the history of the world." Not one bit. Why do my commenters hate America?

Obama comes back with the line from last week: "McCain keeps saying I don't understand. But he's been wrong about everything ever." Segues into Iraq.

After an interminable speech, McCain hits his closer: "We don't have time for on-the-job training."

McCain answers "American exceptionalism." For about two straight minutes.

Question What about America as a peacemaker?

McCain makes a joke about how Obama didn't answer his bait about the size of the fine. McCain is looking really bad on just about every level.

Obama owns health care. Completely.

Camera catches McCain clenching up and sighing in the background. I'm seeing a pattern... Is this the George-Bush-checking-his-watch moment?

Brokaw: Is health care a fundamental right or a responsibility? McCain says "responsibility" but seems to misplace the agency—he seems to say it's government's responsibility. Obama says it should be a right.

McCain's doing worse and worse on health care; even tries a bizarre hair-plugs joke.

More on the Ohio undecided voter device, from Tim:

I love this CNN audience reaction stuff. McCain is getting some hits, but Obama is NAILING energy and health care. Voters across the spectrum like him on these issues. There is no issue on which McCain gets points across the spectrum.
Tim | Email | Homepage | 10.07.08 - 9:58 pm | #

McCain flubs the health care question pretty badly—talks about putting health care records online (huh?) and then starts talking about mandates. I thought all 27 debates during the Democratic primary were about how Obama hates mandates. Now I'm confused.

Hits McCain on the taxing health care issue. Obama is doing very well, it must be said.

Jeff in the comments notices what we've been talking about here in the living room—McCain's calling Obama "that one." Another weird moment that didn't come across well from where I'm sitting.

Camera catches McCain making eyebrows at somebody—weird moment. It sort of looked like he was mocking Obama; I wonder if that'll get replayed.

Obama feels our pain on health care.

Question: "Should health care be a commodity?"

Obama doesn't get to talk about that one for some reason.

Follow-up: Should we fund a Manhattan Project for energy, or should we fund garage industry a la Silicon Valley? Weird question that sounds more profound than it is—what would the difference be in practice?

Brokaw whines about the time again.

Obama hits the word "investment" with regard to his energy plan again, and again I think it's a good framing. Hits McCain on having been in Washington forever and having voted against alternate energy forever.

Comments:

Yeah, McCain is mostly flat lining on the CNN scroll. Apparently uncommitted Ohio voters don't respond to Herbert Hoover jabs.
Neil | 10.07.08 - 9:47 pm | #

McCain keeps dropping Joe Lieberman's name. Because everyone loves Joe Lieberman. McCain is rambling on this one, big time: he couldn't even get out his canned response on nuclear power. Then back to American exceptionalism: turns out we're the best innovators.

Question: What's the deal with climate change and green jobs?

McCain says again "Our best times are ahead of us." Is there a drinking game on this I'm missing?

McCain says "it's not that hard to fix Social Security." The solution is more bipartisanship. McCain's not too popular with his own party, much less the Democrats. Since everyone hates McCain, we know we can trust him to get things done. Huh?

Obama takes his response in the next question anyway, and makes his tax plan very explicit with firm numbers. Very strong answer, I thought.

Obama wants a response. Brokaw refuses.

McCain goes after Obama on taxes with a very weird metaphor about jello.

Obama points out the stupidity of the across-the-board freeze, but doesn't say what he should: that you don't freeze spending in a recession.

From the comments:

I thought the town hall was McCain's strong point. He's stumbling around like a drunk high schooler.
Jeff | Email | Homepage | 10.07.08 - 9:31 pm | #

Gravatar Yeah, I agree, McCain has been terrible so far.
Neil | 10.07.08 - 9:33 pm | #

Gravatar What is the composition of this group? Are there ANY young voters there?
Tim | Email | Homepage | 10.07.08 - 9:33 pm | #

Good points all.

"A lot of you remember the tragedy of 9/11," Barack says. All, I reckon. Pivots from Bush's "go shopping" advice to a call for real community and real sacrifice. Ignores McCain entirely, which is probably the right call.

Question #4: I guess this one was about spending? There was a lot of chatter in the room. McCain's talking about cutting defense spending, also Barack Obama's love of overhead projectors. Then he gets in a nonsense stab about priorities—I said we can do it all! Barack hates health care! Really a stupid moment.

(Oh, here's the question: "What sacrifices will you make to restore the American dream?")

Brokaw yells at everyone about time.

Then he hits McCain's record, particularly the tax cut for the big corporations. Spending vs Earmarks: The Rematch!

Sweet Caroline is touched by Barack's suggestion that we have to prioritize "like a family." "Oh, we're a family! Me and Barack!" In the meantime, Obama is hitting hard on energy independence, which is says is priority #1, hell yes. Health care is priority #2. Education #3.

Brokaw hits McCain on time again.

McCain says we can do it all. Yay! Sweet Caroline, who is on fire, points out that only mavericks can get away with something like that.

Brokaw follow-up: We've got to make some hard choices. What are your priorities from my arbitrary list?

Sweet Caroline points out that McCain's had the stop-talking red-light for about a minute and a half now. Brokaw had to shut him down.

But then he turns on the bipartisanship, which strikes me as counter to the premises of the question. She said, "You're all crooks." He said, "I work with everyone." That doesn't make me feel like he's *less* of a crook.

McCain also feels her pain. That's good.

Obama uses the word "investment" to describe his infrastructure programs on energy and health care. That's a good framing.

Obama feels her pain: "I understand your cynicism." Hits Bush in reply—when George Bush came into office we had surpluses, George Bush doubled the debt, etc. And McCain voted for it all. I think that was the smart play.

Question #3: "How can we trust either of you with our money when both parties got us into this global economic crisis?"

Brokaw follows up: Mr. Obama, are you saying that the economy is going to get worse before it gets better? Obama says that he believes in America, but that we need 21st century reforms for a 21st century economy. McCain says "it depends." Why does McCain hate America/capitalism/puppies?

Obama tries to break down the buyout. Then he tries to lay down his cred on reform. Then he hits McCain on his campaign manager. I might have reversed that order.

It turns out it was Obama's "cronies" who caused this problem! Damn you, Obama! Why have you ruined our economy?

McCain loves the bailout now—he calls it a "rescue." He suspended his campaign, you might remember.

Question #2: More bailout.

Brokaw tries to remind them about the time limits.

Obama likes Warren Buffet too, but dodges the question to talk more about the middle class.

Brokaw gets in his first follow-up. McCain is asked who'd he appoint to the job of putting in charge of the bailout, flirts with Tom Brokaw a bit in response, then names Warren Buffet, Meg Whitman.

Big problem for McCain tonight: the camera angles can't hide how short he is.

McCain digs at Obama about his much-vaunted town hall plan—"It's good to be with you at a town hall debate"—and immediately starts rambling.

Obama starts off calling it "the final verdict on the failed economic policies of the last eight years." Hits CEOs and the Big AIG Post-Bailout Party.

Question #1: How will you bail out the Average Joe on Main Street?

The debate is starting now. After two straight wins for Team Obama, I'm expecting the media to push pretty hard for a McCain win, particularly as this is McCain's supposed point of strength. I'm mostly interested in how bad the questions are going to be...

Allison Kilkenney has a great chart detailing the sponsors of tonight's debate. I don't see any oil companies on the list, so maybe we'll get a question about the environment tonight.

Pre-debate links.

* Those McCain/Palin rallies aren't getting any better.

In the latest instance of inflammatory outbursts at McCain-Palin rallies, a crowd member screamed "treason!" during an event on Tuesday after Sarah Palin accused Barack Obama of criticizing U.S. troops.

Whether or not McCain and Palin can hear these words being shouted at them on the stump, these stories have been in the news for two days now. This is a case where silence really is deafening: when your supporters are screaming out "Treason!" and "Kill him!" you have a moral obligation to step in and put a stop to it. Hell, even Rudy Giuliani knows that.

* Good news/bad news: Apparently Brokaw never agreed to the no followups rule, so the campaigns are expecting there to be followups after all. That's the good news. The bad news: Brokaw ♥s McCain.

* How McCain destroyed the best brand in politics, with more at Washington Monthly.

* They found Sarah Palin's doodles. Rachel Maddow had some fun with this last night. You know, I'm beginning to think this VP choice speaks poorly of McCain's judgment.

* Also at Washington Monthly: analysis of Obama's latest, very good ad.

"He's out of ideas. Out of touch. And running out of time. But with no plan to lift our economy up, John McCain wants to tear Barack Obama down, with smears that have been proven false. Why? McCain's own campaign admits that if the election is about the economy, he's going to lose. But as Americans lose their jobs, homes and savings, it's time for a President who'll change the economy. Not change the subject."

* And despite what you sometimes hear in the comments of this blog, Pennsylvania is not a swing state.

The Page has the rules for tonight's debate, which I'll be covering with my usual level of obsessed frustration tonight at 9 PM. Tonight's the "town hall" debate, which means "real Americans" get to ask "real questions" that have been heavily screened and which the candidates will proceed to not really answer anyway. Don't miss it!

A little bit of politics.

* Yesterday's Tina Fey/Sarah Palin skit was another instant classic. It's no exaggeration to say that Tina Fey may have single-handedly saved America from a Sarah Palin presidency, and for that she deserves our deepest thanks.



* As for what Gwen Ifill thought of the debate she (poorly) moderated, on Meet the Press this morning she seemed a little miffed that Palin "blew [her] off."

* For better or for worse Obama has decided that the Keating Five scandal is now fair game. I say "or for worse" only because it's not clear to me that aggressive negative campaign is still necessary anymore; the Ayers smear to which it is a response is very old news, and there's strong evidence that McCain has permanently damaged his own brand through his lying and smearing. There's also good reason to think McCain is already beat, which makes me wonder whether it's worth it at this point to climb back down to McCain's level and potentially damage the Obama brand as a consequence.

* Open Left also has a post on realignment elections with some nice very nice historical maps.

* And Nicholas Kristof tackles privilege in the time.

One of the fallacies this election season is that if Barack Obama is paying an electoral price for his skin tone, it must be because of racists.

On the contrary, the evidence is that Senator Obama is facing what scholars have dubbed “racism without racists.”

Obama continues to strike at a huge weakness in McCain's platform: his campaign's plan to tax employer-based health benefits for the first time in American history and thereby destroy the employer-based group-insurance system altogether, pushing American workers into the even more dysfunctional individual market.

This was the focus of Obama's big health care speech today.

So when you read the fine print, it’s clear that John McCain is pulling an old Washington bait and switch. It’s a shell game. He gives you a tax credit with one hand – but raises your taxes with the other. And recently, after some forceful questioning on TV, he finally admitted that for some Americans – those with the very best plans – his tax increase will be higher than his tax credit, and they’ll come out behind.

John McCain calls these plans “Cadillac plans.” In some cases, it may be that a corporate CEO is getting too good a deal. But what if you’re a line worker making a good American car like Cadillac who’s given up wage increases in exchange for better health care? Well, Senator McCain believes you should pay higher taxes too. The bottom line: the better your health care plan – the harder you’ve fought for good benefits – the higher the taxes you’ll pay under John McCain’s plan.

And here’s something else Senator McCain won’t tell you. When he taxes people’s benefits, many younger, healthier workers will decide that it’s a better deal to opt out of the insurance they get at work – and instead, go out into the individual market, where they can buy a cheaper plan. Many employers will be left with an older, sicker pool of workers who they can’t afford to cover. As a result, many employers will drop their health care plans altogether. And study after study has shown, that under the McCain plan, at least 20 million Americans will lose the insurance they rely on from their workplace.

It’s the same approach George W. Bush floated a few years ago. It was dead on arrival in Congress. But if Senator McCain were to succeed where George Bush failed, it very well could be the beginning of the end of our employer-based health care system. In fact, some experts have said that that’s exactly the point of John McCain’s plan – to drive you out of the insurance you have through your employer – and out into the marketplace, where your family will be given that $5,000 tax credit and told to buy insurance on your own.

A $5,000 tax credit. That sounds pretty good. But what Senator McCain doesn’t tell you is that the average cost of a family health care plan these days is more than twice that much – $12,680. So where would that leave you?

Senator McCain also doesn’t tell you that insurance in the individual market isn’t just more expensive than insurance you get through work – it also includes fewer benefits. For example, many of these plans don’t cover prescription drugs or pre-natal care. Many don’t cover giving birth, so you’d have to pay out of pocket for that – roughly $6,000. So when you’re out there fending for yourself against the insurance companies, you pay more and get less.

Here’s another thing Senator McCain doesn’t tell you – his plan won’t do a thing to stop insurance companies from discriminating against you if you have a pre-existing condition like hypertension, asthma, diabetes or cancer…the kind of conditions that 65 million working age Americans suffer from – people from all backgrounds and walks of life all across this country. Employers don’t charge you higher premiums for these conditions, but insurers do – much higher. So the sicker you’ve been, the more you’ll have to pay, and the harder it’ll be to get the care you need.

Finally, what John McCain doesn’t tell you is that his plan calls for massive deregulation of the insurance industry that would leave families without the basic protections you rely on. You may have heard about how, in the current issue of a magazine, Senator McCain wrote that we need to open up health care to – and I quote – “more vigorous nationwide competition as we have done over the last decade in banking.” That’s right, he wants to deregulate the insurance industry just like he fought to deregulate the banking industry. And we’ve all seen how well that worked out.

It's a devastating line of attack on an incredibly poor proposal, one that by itself I think would be enough to give Obama the election—if indeed he weren't already winning it. There's more coverage from Matt Yglesias, Steve Benen, and Chuck Todd; I expect this'll be the most lively exchange at this Tuesday's debate...