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Monday, December 10, 2007

After a few weeks of Hillary-Clinton-is-inevitable primary hopelessness, I'm starting to feel really good again about Obama's chances of overtaking her. I think the Oprah thing is huge, bigger than even either Ezra Klein or Ana Marie Cox acknowledge: not merely because it's a massive amount of free, positive PR or because Oprah Winfrey has the potential to bring new voters to the polls for Obama, but also insofar as her endorsement helps give women who might otherwise feel duty-bound to vote Clinton for reasons of gender solidarity "permission" to vote for Obama instead. (The Dec. 3 results from the Pew Research Group on this page would suggest that gender solidarity is an important component in Hillary's still-commanding lead in early primary states.)

Meanwhile, I really like what I see in this focus group comparing Obama and Clinton:

Obama, they worried, can't win the nomination; voters aren't ready for an African-American president (a point expressed most directly by the two black women participants), and he may not be sufficiently experienced.

A couple of victories in Iowa and New Hampshire would cure most of those problems.

The concerns about Clinton, 60, a New York senator, are that she is devious, calculating and, fairly or not, a divisive figure in American politics.

Those are a lot tougher to overcome.

It was revealing, too, when Hart pushed them to envision these senators as leaders of the country or, as he put it, their ``boss.'' Obama, they say, would be inspirational, motivating, charismatic and compassionate. After praising Clinton's experience and intelligence, they say she would be demanding, difficult, maybe even a little scary.