In my armchair analysis of the state of the Democratic primary race last night, I talked a lot about Obama's structural advantages going into the rest of February. Chief among these are a friendly February schedule and a functionally limitless fundraising horizon. It's why I was able to make this bold claim:
Obama +1 and above: If everything goes Obama's way and he somehow winds up ahead in Super Tuesday pledged delegates at the end of the night, then he's got the nomination sealed up, barring any really shocking gamechangers. (This is really a super-knockout, Clinton-dropping-out-this-week territory.) Unfortunately, it's completely unlikely to occur.Now that this has actually come to pass, I should say that I don't think Clinton will actually drop out this week, not least of all because she won California—but it should become increasingly clear in the coming days that she doesn't have to resources to fight what's left of this campaign on Barack's terms the way he was able to win on hers. Today the first shoe dropped, and it's a big one: Hillary loaned her own campaign $5 million dollars in advance of Super Tuesday. (More here and here.) With Clinton apparently already contemplating another self-loan, one can only conclude that the campaign has little or no cash on hand. This does not bode well for her ability to launch a comeback later in the month, lending credence to my theory that Super Tuesday will come to be seen, in retrospect, as the night Obama won the election. It's not over, but he's playing with a very strong hand.
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