Setting Expectations and Making Predictions

I'll be back tonight liveblogging Super Tuesday results as they come in, but I wanted to lay out the race as I see it so people have a framework in which to interpret the results.

I start out with two premises:

#1 Clinton was ahead by double digits in nearly all of these states about a week ago.
#2 Obama has several structural advantages that Clinton does not, namely better fundraising upsides (more enthusiastic supporters and fewer maxed-out ones), better trendlines (check the polls from the last few weeks), hugely positive press and word-of-mouth, and a more friendly February schedule.

I also have a shadow premise: #3 Obama can play the Gore card whenever he feels he needs it, and probably the Edwards card too.

These taken together make the requirements for victory very different for these two candidates—Clinton, whose campaign has been in a tailspin, needs to do much better tonight to get on a strong footing for February. Obama can afford to be down a bit tonight; Clinton, the once inevitable frontrunner who has been fading for the last two weeks, really can't.

Also, if the recent polls are correct, it looks as though the state map will be divided roughly evenly—so I think the spin war is going to come down to the delegate count.

With all that in mind, here's what I make out of the possible outcomes from tonight, drawing from both the conventional wisdom that I've seen out there and an educated guess about who will win the spin war in the press:

Clinton + 200: This is the threshold for a Clinton "knockout." If she's up by over 200 delegates after tonight, it's hard to see how Obama can bounce back.

Clinton +150: This is about the break-even point for Obama, the point at which his structural advantages for the rest of February start to tip the scales back in his favor.

Clinton +100: This is the level that the Obama camp is trying to define as a clear Obama win, which suggests that they think he can significantly beat it. Obama will make up this difference in February fairly easily, and he looks increasingly strong in Texas. If Obama is only a hundred delegates down in pledged Super Tuesday delegates, he becomes the favorite to win the nomination.

Clinton +50: Given Obama's structural upside, we're just about in Obama knockout territory. Past +50 and he's the strong favorite for the nomination. Unfortunately, these numbers are also taking us further and further into Happy Super Optimism Fantasyland.

Clinton +15: If Clinton receives fewer than fifteen delegates, Obama retains the total lead in delegates, which is as close as he can come to a clear win without actually winning.

Obama +1 and above: If everything goes Obama's way and he somehow winds up ahead in Super Tuesday pledged delegates at the end of the night, then he's got the nomination sealed up, barring any really shocking gamechangers. (This is really a super-knockout, Clinton-dropping-out-this-week territory.) Unfortunately, it's completely unlikely to occur.

If I had to put a bet on it, based on the polls and on the spin that's already coming out of the two camps, I'd guess that Obama beats the Clinton +100 number by a good amount but falls significantly short of Clinton +15, meaning the race goes on with Clinton seriously wounded (but not dead) and Obama moderately-to-very likely to win the nomination.

There are a few other ways Obama can score a functional knockout without winning a majority of delegates tonight. One is New York; a shock loss in New York would kill the Clinton campaign even if she wins California. Another is California—a come-from-behind finish there might be enough to anoint Obama tonight's winner, even if he loses in the actual delegate count nationally. Lastly, keep a close eye on the Northeast, especially Jersey—these states should be Clinton strongholds, and if she's losing there, she's in bad shape, both tonight and in the coming weeks.

On the other hand, if Georgia isn't called for Obama very quickly after 7 pm, Obama supporters are in for a long and unhappy night.

The Field has some great analysis of tonight, hour by hour, if you want more.

7 pm ET
8 pm ET
9 pm ET
10 pm ET
11 pm ET / California

The site definitely has a pro-Obama bias, but so do I, and here's hoping that tonight reality does too.

UPDATE: Marc Ambinder has the essential tipsheet for anyone who wants to draw conclusions from the demographics of states voting tonight...