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Sunday, February 10, 2008

Given the track record of my previous baseless Al Gore speculation—he'll run; he'll declare after he wins the Nobel; he'll endorse Obama early; he'll endorse Obama before Super Tuesday; he'll endorse Obama soon after Super Tuesday—it may be of interest that I've come to a new conclusion to explain what Al Gore's doing. I think the Obama camp has decided that the value of a Gore endorsement in any particular contest, especially from this point on, is relatively marginal—so better to hold him in reserve in case it becomes necessary to fight over superdelegates, at which time he can emerge as a previously uncommitted elder statesman throwing his weight behind the people's choice.

(Again, given my track record on this point, I guess we can now expect a Gore endorsement of Hillary Clinton later in the week. But this is what I think must be going on.)

I have no clue what the thinking is with Edwards. Does the Obama camp think that he is best saved for use as a surrogate in Ohio, Texas, or Pennsylvania? Could Edwards really be genuinely conflicted over which of Obama or Clinton better serves the poverty-centered politics he describes as the cause of his life? I find the latter hypothesis rather hard to accept.