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Tuesday, September 09, 2008

Tonight's Wall Street Journal/NBC poll gives some evidence to support what had previously been just my secret hope: McCain's national gains may be due largely to consolidated support in the South, not in the swing states where it actually matters. Unlike the Democratic primary, where high vote differentials was part of the key to Obama's victory, running up the score in Mississippi and Alabama won't help McCain get to 270.

Via MyDD, which notes a similar trend in Gallup while also doing a little bit of hand-wringing over the quick decline in Obama's support from women. I think that's an artifact of a very unusual week in American politics; I'd expect him to regain a decent lead among women by November.

UPDATE: If Gallup believes these numbers are accurate, why even bother doing national polls at all? McCain obviously can't win if he loses every region of the country but the South.