Tuesday night politics roundup: Steve Benen once again makes the case for health care incrementalism. Bill Clinton makes the case for not losing. The Senate probably won't pass the Stupak amendment. Open Left, noting a PPP poll suggesting Olympia Snowe can't win a Republican primary in Maine, predicts she'll switch parties; Nicholas Beaudrot concurs and suggests a Mugwump caucus. Contrary to reports, the climate bill does not make Obama dictator. Paid sick leave is a good idea. The GOP is unlikely to take back the House in a context in which it draws all its support from the South. Why employment might not fully recover until 2013. How we can destroy the filibuster. Is Marxism relevant today?

A few midday links.

* In my previous election prediction thread I forgot to mention tomorrow's marriage equality vote in Maine, on which Adam Bink has an update at Open Left. I always think people will do the right thing on these marriage equality votes and I am always disappointed, so this year I'm expecting to lose but still hoping to be wrong.

* Looking past health care: can a climate bill actually pass the Senate? Steve Benen has more.

* The Climate Race: How Climate Change Is Already Affecting Us. Via Boing Boing. In the American Southeast:

* Average daily temperature about 2 degrees higher with the greatest increase in winter.
* Days below freezing (32 degrees) reduced to four to seven per year.
* Average fall precipitation 30% higher since 1901, with the exception of South Florida.
* Moderate to severe droughts in spring and summer have increased 12% and 14%, respectively.
* Destructive potential of hurricanes has increased since 1970, due to an increase in sea surface temperature.

* 23 Private College Presidents Made More Than $1 Million. I was a little surprised not to see Brodhead's name on the list, until I remembered how much money we pay Coach K.

* Elsewhere in North Carolina, a majority favors the public option.

Fifty-four percent of North Carolina residents surveyed by Elon University said they would support a public option. Forty-one percent said they would use a public option plan should one become available.

It's crucial to recognize here that the health care reform that is under discussion is far less ambitious than what the public would actually support; nothing close to 41% of the state will be eligible for the very limited version of the public option that is actually going to be voted on.

* How is televised science fiction doing in the ratings? What this list really shows, Dollhouse aside, is how bad TV SF is right now. Even the shows I do watch—FlashForward, Fringe—aren't exactly what I'd call good.

Friday afternoon linkblogging!

* 28% of Republicans claim to believe Barack Obama was not born in the United States, and another 30% "aren't sure." Results for the South are even worse. So it's official: our national discourse is completely broken.

* Entertainment Weekly asks: Was 1984 the greatest year in movies ever? I've always been partial to 1999: Rushmore, The Matrix, Being John Malkovich, Fight Club, Magnolia...

* Vanity Fair has your sketchbook history of the drug war.

* Steampunk monkey nation.

* Jericho may be returning once again as a TV movie to wrap up loose plot points. My recollection of the finale was that there weren't very many loose plot points left, but your memory may vary.

* Chris Hedges: "The Rise of Gonzo Porn Is the Latest Sign of America's Cultural Apocalypse."

* And Scientific American explores the quiet end of the Neanderthals.

Neosecessionism: because the Left hates America and only conservatives are patriots.

Change and the South.

North Carolina in the news!

* News & Observer reporter assaulted at McCain-Palin rally.

* Obama supporters' tires slashed at Fayetteville rally.

* Mostly African-American early voters heckled and mocked by mostly white crowds.

* And craziest of all: Dead bear found dumped on Western Carolina University's campus, draped by a pair of Obama campaign signs.

North Carolina's id has been unleashed. Stay safe, fellow carpetbaggers!

Nighttime politics.

* Great chart from Ezra Klein and Grist about the incredible insignificance of off-shore drilling.

* "Bush Doctrine" is the buzzword coming out of Sarah Palin's interview with Charlie Gibson—she seemed to not know what it was.

GIBSON: Do you agree with the Bush Doctrine?

PALIN: In what respect, Charlie?

GIBSON: The Bush -- well, what do you interpret it to be?

PALIN: His world view?

GIBSON: No, the Bush Doctrine, enunciated in September 2002, before the Iraq war.

PALIN: I believe that what President Bush has attempted to do is rid this world of Islamic extremism, terrorists who are hell-bent on destroying our nation. There have been blunders along the way, though. There have been mistakes made. And with new leadership -- and that's the beauty of American elections, of course, and democracy, is with new leadership comes opportunity to do things better.

GIBSON: The Bush Doctrine, as I understand it, is that we have the right of anticipatory self-defense; that we have the right to a preemptive strike against any other country that we think is going to attack us. Do you agree with that?

Here's the video. A lot of people are quoting Marc Ambinder's Twitter feed on this: "deer-in-the-headlights." A Republican in P.R. gives her a B- at TNR, writing:

I would give her a B or better, B-. I liked her confidence, combativeness but the answers were scripted, she had to repeat one mantra over and over again. What it shows about the way McCain's people are handling her is worse: they are trying to get her to memorize answers rather than being honest, within limits, about what she doesn't know.

* Sarah Palin dropped the thanks-but-no-thanks-for-that-Bridge-to-Nowhere lie from her speech today in Alaska. Pandering, or did she just know they'd see through it?

* Maybe the last word on Sarah Palin: Rasmussen reports she's bombing with moderates.

Among all voters:

39% very favorable
17% somewhat favorable
14% somewhat unfavorable
26% very unfavorable

Gee, approval ratings are just a few points off of 60% for the "wildly popular governor." But, let's look a little closer at those numbers. Conservatives love her, but what about moderates? Those numbers paint a different picture:

20% very favorable
15% somewhat favorable
26% somewhat unfavorable
35% very unfavorable
3% not sure

* Switzerland: the greenest country in the world.

* Followup on themes from the week: More numbers that suggest McCain can't win outside the South. Meanwhile, Daniel Nichanian at the Huffington Post talks more about the underappreciated importance of Obama's ground game.

Tonight's Wall Street Journal/NBC poll gives some evidence to support what had previously been just my secret hope: McCain's national gains may be due largely to consolidated support in the South, not in the swing states where it actually matters. Unlike the Democratic primary, where high vote differentials was part of the key to Obama's victory, running up the score in Mississippi and Alabama won't help McCain get to 270.

Via MyDD, which notes a similar trend in Gallup while also doing a little bit of hand-wringing over the quick decline in Obama's support from women. I think that's an artifact of a very unusual week in American politics; I'd expect him to regain a decent lead among women by November.

UPDATE: If Gallup believes these numbers are accurate, why even bother doing national polls at all? McCain obviously can't win if he loses every region of the country but the South.

Hogan at Lawyers, Guns, and Money had a great comment yesterday summing up the last half-century of Democratic politics in America:

Roy Blount Jr once said that before Carter, assembling a national ticket and platform for the Democrats was always a matter of, "Well, we've baked this good nourishing pie here, but now we've got to put some shit in it, because otherwise the South won't eat it." Carter looked like a shit-free pie that the South would have to eat because that's where he was baked.

Clintonian triangulation is a weird inverse of that compulsion: the Republicans have convinced people to eat shit, so all we can do is try to put a little nourishment into that shit, rather than, say, convincing people that they don't have to keep eating shit.

Viva Obama. Via one of Matt Y.'s commenters.

My media empire continues its slow takeover of the Research Triangle with an unprecedented two articles in this week's Independent, one reviewing a recent book on civil rights landmarks in the South and the other taking a look inside the Ron Paul Revolution.