Tuesday night politics roundup: Steve Benen once again makes the case for health care incrementalism. Bill Clinton makes the case for not losing. The Senate probably won't pass the Stupak amendment. Open Left, noting a PPP poll suggesting Olympia Snowe can't win a Republican primary in Maine, predicts she'll switch parties; Nicholas Beaudrot concurs and suggests a Mugwump caucus. Contrary to reports, the climate bill does not make Obama dictator. Paid sick leave is a good idea. The GOP is unlikely to take back the House in a context in which it draws all its support from the South. Why employment might not fully recover until 2013. How we can destroy the filibuster. Is Marxism relevant today?

Closing some tabs.

* Terrible news, everyone: International Science Fiction Reshelving Day has been canceled.

* Still mad at SIGG for lying about the BPA content in its canteens? Don't worry; there's BPA in everything.

* Having solved all the world's ills, the Catholic Church paid $500,000 to see marriage equality go down in Maine.

* I was hoping Ned Lamont would make another run against Joe Lieberman. Too bad.

* And Neil sends in a fun Flash application about scale.

I went to bed before NJ or NY-23 was called, so while I'm slightly disappointed to see the Republican win in NJ after all (Booker '13?) I'm very glad to see the extremists cost the GOP that century-old House seat in NY-23.

Nate Silver goes race by race at FiveThirtyEight.com. Here's NJ:

Obama approval was actually pretty strong in New Jersey, at 57 percent, but 27 percent of those who approved of Obama nevertheless voted for someone other than Corzine. This one really does appear to be mostly about Corzine being an unappealing candidate, as the Democrats look like they'll lose just one or two seats in the state legislature in Trenton. Corzine compounded his problems by staying negative until the bitter end of the campaign rather than rounding out his portfolio after having closed the margin with Christie.

And here's NY-23:

NY-23: Democrat Bill Owens prevails in a result that will be regarded as surprising; the final tally isn't in yet but it appears as though it will be something on the order of 50-45 over Conservative Doug Hoffman. I don't think I've ever hedged more on predicting the outcome of a race; the main issue is that there was a rather large discrepancy between the polling, which heavily favored Hoffman, and what I perceived to be the facts on the ground. NY-23 is solidly Republican but not especially conservative (it voted for Barack Obama last year), and Hoffman was a relatively uncharismatic candidate with poor command of the local issues.

If New Jersey was a win for the incumbent rule, then NY-23 may have ben a win for the Median voter theorem, as Owens -- a conservative Democrat -- was actually much closer to the average ideology of the district than the capital-C Conservative Hoffman. It was also a reminder that all politics is local (sometimes). More than 95 percent of Hoffman's contributions came from out-of-district, and the conservative activists who tried to brand him as a modern-day Jefferson Smith never bothered to check whether he resonated particularly well with the zeitgeist of the district. In any event, this is a Democratic takeover of a GOP-held seat and they expand by one their majority in the House.

Like Kos, I'd have traded all three races for the Maine marriage-equality vote. That's a heart-breaker, and shows again why it's never a good idea for a society to put minority civil rights on the ballot. Another slight bright side: a civil unions bill passed the ballot in Washington state.

A few midday links.

* In my previous election prediction thread I forgot to mention tomorrow's marriage equality vote in Maine, on which Adam Bink has an update at Open Left. I always think people will do the right thing on these marriage equality votes and I am always disappointed, so this year I'm expecting to lose but still hoping to be wrong.

* Looking past health care: can a climate bill actually pass the Senate? Steve Benen has more.

* The Climate Race: How Climate Change Is Already Affecting Us. Via Boing Boing. In the American Southeast:

* Average daily temperature about 2 degrees higher with the greatest increase in winter.
* Days below freezing (32 degrees) reduced to four to seven per year.
* Average fall precipitation 30% higher since 1901, with the exception of South Florida.
* Moderate to severe droughts in spring and summer have increased 12% and 14%, respectively.
* Destructive potential of hurricanes has increased since 1970, due to an increase in sea surface temperature.

* 23 Private College Presidents Made More Than $1 Million. I was a little surprised not to see Brodhead's name on the list, until I remembered how much money we pay Coach K.

* Elsewhere in North Carolina, a majority favors the public option.

Fifty-four percent of North Carolina residents surveyed by Elon University said they would support a public option. Forty-one percent said they would use a public option plan should one become available.

It's crucial to recognize here that the health care reform that is under discussion is far less ambitious than what the public would actually support; nothing close to 41% of the state will be eligible for the very limited version of the public option that is actually going to be voted on.

* How is televised science fiction doing in the ratings? What this list really shows, Dollhouse aside, is how bad TV SF is right now. Even the shows I do watch—FlashForward, Fringe—aren't exactly what I'd call good.

By popular demand, Politics Thursday.

* Health care madness: Olympia Snowe says she won't vote for cloture if there's a public option in the bill, while Ben Nelson says he'll support an opt-out. (By my calculations this once again makes Joe Lieberman the Most Important Person in the country.) It seems clear we'll get some sort of health care reform, but its specific content is still really unpredictable. Fingers crossed.

* Meanwhile, in New Jersey, Daggetmentum has topped 20%, with Jon Corzine now slightly leading Chris Christie as a consequence.

* Nate Silver crunches the numbers on the marriage equality referendum in Maine and concludes it all comes down to turnout.

* When You Marry: a 1962 handbook.

* Ryan's Facebook feed had this link to a random manifesto generator. I now feel ready for any particular revolution that comes along.

* T. Boone Pickens explains why the U.S. is "entitled" to Iraqi oil. Could anyone have doubted it?

* And an increasing number of Americans want to legalize it.

Thursday, Thursday.

* My four-word post on marriage equality in Maine yesterday somehow turned into yet another epic comment thread about gay marriage. I just know this time we'll hammer out agreement.

* Science fiction in the New Yorker: "The Slows" by Gail Hareven.

* Dollhouse "certain to be canceled." Keep hope alive.

* Wolverine, despite by all accounts not being very good, gets a sequel.

* Craig Arnold update: they think they've found his trail.

* 'MLA Urges Chairs to Focus on Adjunct Issues.'

* When the bomb goes off, everyone's got one last thing to do before they die. A game.

Maine makes it official.

Tuesday night.

* Early review of The Fantastic Mr. Fox at the Rushmore Academy.

* Van Gogh's ear actually cut off by Gauguin? Now I don't believe in nothing.

* Carbon taxes vs. cap and trade. More at Kevin Drum.

* Advocate torture? That's a disbarrin'.

* Mexican legislature votes to legalize small quantities of narcotics.

* Maine legislature votes to legalize marriage equality. DC: ditto.

* And this map at Wikipedia claims the entire energy output of the world could be provided by six very large solar energy facilities operating at just 8% efficiency. Via MeFi.

Picking up speed: Maine's Senate has backed marriage equality, with passage likely in the state's House as well.

The big news tonight is Maine, which is coming in unexpectedly strong for Obama. With 44% now 59% of the precincts reporting, it's Obama 57, Clinton 42.

...the numbers haven't been updated in nearly an hour, but the AP has called Maine for Obama. 5-0! Onward to Tuesday. Here's the Baltimore Sun endorsement.


... Obama 58, Clinton 41, now with 70% in. Another blowout.

--

Here's a neat Google map of the results that have already come in and their intensity of support either way.

As I mentioned earlier today, this was Clinton's best chance for a win before March, so this is very bad news for her.

There are a few other interesting stories tonight, as well. First is the news that Clinton's campaign manager has resigned. (More here.) There's also more buzz surrounding Edwards—Clinton met with him in Chapel Hill today and Obama is meeting with him tomorrow. (More.) Personally, I think Edwards waited too long and that now his endorsement won't have much impact; still, I'll be glad for Obama to have it. Anxiety over mandates or no, I see no way that Edwards can endorse Clinton and retain any credibility at all, so I really don't think he will.

Meanwhile, Obama has just won a Grammy award over former presidents Bill Clinton and Jimmy Carter and Case Western Reserve Purple Monkey Dishwasher E. coli University Graduation Speaker '02 Maya Angelou. And Alan Alda. Next up, an Oscar, and after that a Nobel Peace Prize can't be far behind.