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Showing posts with label Washington. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Washington. Show all posts

Wednesday, November 04, 2009

I went to bed before NJ or NY-23 was called, so while I'm slightly disappointed to see the Republican win in NJ after all (Booker '13?) I'm very glad to see the extremists cost the GOP that century-old House seat in NY-23.

Nate Silver goes race by race at FiveThirtyEight.com. Here's NJ:

Obama approval was actually pretty strong in New Jersey, at 57 percent, but 27 percent of those who approved of Obama nevertheless voted for someone other than Corzine. This one really does appear to be mostly about Corzine being an unappealing candidate, as the Democrats look like they'll lose just one or two seats in the state legislature in Trenton. Corzine compounded his problems by staying negative until the bitter end of the campaign rather than rounding out his portfolio after having closed the margin with Christie.
And here's NY-23:
NY-23: Democrat Bill Owens prevails in a result that will be regarded as surprising; the final tally isn't in yet but it appears as though it will be something on the order of 50-45 over Conservative Doug Hoffman. I don't think I've ever hedged more on predicting the outcome of a race; the main issue is that there was a rather large discrepancy between the polling, which heavily favored Hoffman, and what I perceived to be the facts on the ground. NY-23 is solidly Republican but not especially conservative (it voted for Barack Obama last year), and Hoffman was a relatively uncharismatic candidate with poor command of the local issues.

If New Jersey was a win for the incumbent rule, then NY-23 may have ben a win for the Median voter theorem, as Owens -- a conservative Democrat -- was actually much closer to the average ideology of the district than the capital-C Conservative Hoffman. It was also a reminder that all politics is local (sometimes). More than 95 percent of Hoffman's contributions came from out-of-district, and the conservative activists who tried to brand him as a modern-day Jefferson Smith never bothered to check whether he resonated particularly well with the zeitgeist of the district. In any event, this is a Democratic takeover of a GOP-held seat and they expand by one their majority in the House.
Like Kos, I'd have traded all three races for the Maine marriage-equality vote. That's a heart-breaker, and shows again why it's never a good idea for a society to put minority civil rights on the ballot. Another slight bright side: a civil unions bill passed the ballot in Washington state.

Saturday, February 09, 2008

Election results are now coming in for the day's primary and caucuses:

Louisiana (closed primary, and please note the reports of dirty tricks)

No reports yet, but the exits look good. Results are coming in now, extremely slowly. At less than 1% in, it's Barack up 49 to 37. According to CNN's exits, analyzed here, this is likely the closest match of the night.

...at 14% in, it's Barack 54%, Clinton 37%.
...MSNBC calls it. Barack sweeps!

Nebraska (caucus)

CNN has already called it for Obama. With 74% of the precincts reporting, it's Obama 67, Clinton 33. Good numbers.

Washington (caucus)

No official call yet, but reports all day have sounded very good for Obama, with huge margins all over Seattle and elsewhere. CNN's called this one too.

With 37% reporting, it's Obama 67, Clinton 32. More very good numbers.
Meanwhile, Kansas is Huckabee country.

...and Louisiana!
...and Washington!

Has McCain been crowned too soon?