Ohio, Ohio, Ohio

Obama rising in my old stomping ground: Quinnipiac puts him up 49-45 in Ohio. The last poll, from before either convention, had Obama up 44-43.



McCain can't win without Ohio, even if it takes back (in order of unlikelihood) Iowa, New Mexico, and Colorado. If Obama retains those three and gets Ohio, he wins even if he loses Michigan (which he won't, not even if they cheat.)



Worth saying too that these numbers and those from other recent polls feed the speculation that McCain's national numbers are rising primarily due to consolidated support in the South.