Texas Debate Liveblogging.

Okay, so that's it. Even more clearly than in the last one-on-one debate, Barack wins a pretty even debate with a strong answer on the plagiarism/"silly season" issue. CNN replayed their "people meter" during one of the breaks and you can see Hillary's approval tanking in that moment—it was about ten solid minutes of Obamamania and in my opinion she never recovered from it. He also won the exchanges about how to take on John McCain. I was an Obama supporter early, of course, but I don't see how anyone undecided comes out of this debate deciding to vote for Clinton, and I'm guessing he peeled off some of her support, too.

9:40 pm: Rather than a question about the environment, which as we know is not an issue facing America in any way, we get a nonsense question: "Describe the moment in your life when you were tested the most." Obama talks about growing up with a single mother; Clinton, unless I misunderstood her, seems to reference Monica Lewinsky, which the crowd seems to wildly applaud. (?) That was very strange.

9:36 pm: Superdelegates. Clinton refuses to talk about superdelegates regardless of the fact that her entire strategy is banking on them. Obama says the primaries and caucuses should count for something, and ties it to the sense among the populace that government isn't listening to them because they've been "shut out." We're "tired out of a government that is dominated by the connected and the powerful; we want our government back."

9:32 pm: CNN tries another go at tripping Obama up with a question about earmarks. His answer is about his record on transparency. When it's Clinton's turn, she has nearly four times as much in earmarks, compared to St. John who says he has never asked for one. She drives at McCain too, which is a better look for her than attacking her Democratic opponent.

9:28 pm: Obama wound up going after McCain really hard in that answer—and probably as a consequence it was another really good sequence for him. He seemed like he'd already won the nomination. He gets in good lines about both the "100 Years" issue and the "I don't understand the economy" stuff.

9:21 pm: Another Iraq question, this one about McCain and his experience. Yet another question about how great the surge is.

9:16 pm: Now, back to the commander-in-chief thing. She's still saying "Ready on Day 1." Obama says he wouldn't be running if he didn't think he was prepared to be commander-in-chief; the crowd likes this. He segues quickly to Iraq, and lays a lot of emphasis on judgment. The crowd likes this too.

9:11 pm: New question: Clinton, are you saying that Obama is not qualified to be commander-in-chief? She refuses to answer the question and tries to go back to health care. The audience doesn't like it, and neither do the moderators, but she goes on, invoking the ghost of John Edwards in the process. Now Obama demands a rebuttal, and brings up the enforcement mechanism: "going after their wages." Now Clinton demands a rebuttal to the rebuttal. Obama takes a rebuttal to the third power. Obama wins, as usual, on the mandate thing, though Clinton pounds the table a bit.

The moderators have completely lost control of this debate.

9:07 pm: Obama also goes directly to the 1992 health care debacle, which I think was smart. I don't know if he was watching a clock or if he just got lucky, but CNN takes a break with Clinton's 1992 failure the last word.

9:03 pm: Clinton tries to recover with the universal health care issue. Barack starts talking specifics on universal health care, which once again cuts against this all-hat-and-no-cattle issue she insists on bringing up. Again, I ask: did she think he wouldn't? Does she really believe in what Matt Yglesias calls "the conservation of virtues," which is the claim that one cannot be both eloquent and knowledgeable? I think she does.

9:00 pm: Hillary gets nasty and the crowd boos. "That's not change you can believe in; that's change you can Xerox." I think she knew as she was saying it that it was the wrong thing to say after Barack had just been so positive, but she couldn't help using her prepared line.

8:57 pm: Obama the plagiarist? He's clearly been prepped for this one too. Good. "This is where we start getting into silly season in politics and I think people are discouraged by it." He uses the rest of his time to say he's been talking about specifics this whole time, and the crowd is really behind him as he answers. "We shouldn't be tearing each other time, we should be lifting the country up."

8:55 pm: Obama really nailed this question. A paraphrase: "She says that my millions of supporters, and editorial boards all across the country, etc etc, are all delusional." He laughs at this characterization just the right amount. He finishes off with a call to inspiration and a call to that political movement. His best answer of the night and an early contender for "moment of the debate." The crowd drowns out the next question.

8:54 pm: Obama starts listing his accomplishments. Did she think he wouldn't?

8:52 pm: Clinton: Do you really think Obama all hat and no cattle? She backs off from saying so, but then goes ahead and that she offers solutions. She says she has a record and some accomplishments—brings up the infamous MSNBC debacle in which an Obama proxy couldn't name one Obama accomplishment. (And here I thought this thing was going to be cordial all night.)

8:45 pm: Should the U.S. become a bilingual nation? Clinton says yes but English should still be the unofficial, unifying language. Obama says everyone needs to learn English so we can bind ourselves together as a country, but also says every student should learn a second language. Bashes No Child Left Behind, which the crowd likes as well.

8:40 pm: Obama jumps in with "What she said." Obama brings up the DREAM Act, which helps children who have grown up in the States to go to college; he gets a pop for this too.

8:36 pm: Border fence. Clinton (and Obama too) voted for the border fence—will you finish the fence, or will you stop the fence? She does a nice spin move here and blames it all on Bush. "I would listen to the people who live along the border."

8:35 pm: Immigration. "Would you consider stopping raids on undocumented immigrants?" Clinton says "Yes, except in egregious situations." She would introduce a path to citizenship in the first 100 days of her presidency. Obama takes most of what Clinton said as his base and then tries to go forward. Let's tone down the rhetoric, he says. And let's fix the INS and let's reduce the fees and legal expenses that keep immigrants from applying for citizenship. And let's get Mexico on board and start producing jobs there—gets in a hit on Bush in the process.

8:30 pm: Clinton pulls a "What Barack said" before she gets to her first difference: the foreclosure moratorium and the freezing of interest rates. CNN tries to interrupt Clinton, but Clinton stays in control. That question was a waste of time as no differences were advanced.

8:25 pm: John King asks how a President Obama would be different than a President Clinton on matters of the economy. He gets a lot of crowd pops on eat-the-rich stuff: stop giving tax cuts to companies that outsource, repeal the Bush tax cuts and reduce/eliminate taxes on the elderly. "We need to view trade deals through the lens of Main Street, not Wall Street." He hits the green economy issue. He says he and Clinton, and the now-fallen candidates, generally agreed -- the Democrats have a shared agenda. The question is how do we get it done -- and here's where we need "a working coalition for change." Hits Clinton with the special interest and lobbying issue in the handover.

8:20 pm: Clinton is trying to hang a lot on this distinction about which conditions she'll talk to our nation's "enemies," but it seems to me that she's met Obama nearly 90% of the way from the place where this debate started. The audience likes her knocking on Bush, and Chelsea's in the audience tonight, looking very proud of her mom.

8:14 pm: Univision hits us with a Cuban embargo question. Will Clinton meet with Raul Castro? Clinton says "she hopes so," which doesn't necessarily mean "yes"—Cuba has to prove it's willing to democratize first. "I would not meet with him until there was evidence that change was happening." Obama says he will, but ties it to the same sorts of "evidence"—which he calls "preparation"—but says that the U.S. needs to talk to its enemies as well as its friends. He also calls for the loosening on the embargo, including travel restrictions and renumeration, but not immediate normalization. The host tries to call this a flip-flop—I hate CNN—but Obama explains that the failure of the embargo policy is real and that this is how we need to deal with it.

8:10 pm: Barack leads with the "friends" live we've heard before, before leaping into economic issues: foreclosures, health care, outsourcing. The war, and its costs. "We've both offered detailed proposals to deal with these problems." Trying to get out in front of the all-hat-and-no-cattle issue. "Washington is where good ideas go to die." Obama quotes Barbara Jordan -- "People want an American as good as its promise" -- and the crowd seems to like that.

8:05 pm: No rules! Stay on point and don't take so long. Clinton goes first and begins with the story about her first political job, registering voters in South Texas, dropping names of prominent Texas female politicians in the bargain: Barbara Jordan, Ann Richards. So far it's "nice Hillary," not "kill you to death, this-is-the-fun-part Hillary"—but it's only the first few minutes. She offers a lifetime of experience and proven results—she's sticking with that message.

8:00 pm: The debate is beginning now. It's interesting that it's partly sponsored by Univision, the Spanish-language channel—should be a lot of questions about immigration and the Hispanic community tonight. It's also hosted at the University of Texas at Austin, which you'd expect should inform the questioning as well.

The last debate between Clinton and Obama, just before Super Tuesday, didn't actually have all that much in the way of fireworks. Both candidates were on defense in anticipation of Super Duper Tuesday, and neither had much incentive to take risks.

Tonight is different, and for that reason likely to be much more intense. Clinton is desperate for anything that has a chance of turning the race around, and I'm expecting her to throw a whole lot of vitriolic nonsense out tonight in the hopes that something sticks. Barack, as always, goes into these things at a double disadvantage: not only is he not an especially good debater, but his lackluster performance in debates has a tendency to disappoint people who have only heard him on the stump. His advisers have had a few weeks since the last debate to train him to give quick, pithy responses to negative attacks rather than trying to carefully and systemically unpack the misleading things that have been said—let's hope they've done their job and that he's learned his lesson well.

I also hope he's been trained to go for the jugular a little bit more when he needs to, which has been not his forte in debates either.

As always, let's hope he brings his debating pants.

LATE BREAKING UPDATE: I'll be back tonight to liveblog, but in the meantime a sneak preview of tonight's debate is already available through the magic of the Internets:



Looks like a spicy one.

Okay, I'll liveblog.

OVERALL: A tie with a slight edge to Barack because of the latter half. (Definitely his best debate so far, by a mile.) [UPDATE: Ambinder agrees. So does TNR.] Obama definitely held his own, especially on Iraq, but neither one of them opened the door to the sort of fireworks we saw in the last one. Everyone was playing it safe. Time to check the network spin...

9:53: Then she plugs her "nationwide town-hall meeting." This was sort of lame.

9:50: Last question. Will you run together? The audience claps, the candidates laugh. This is the last question, really? Barack jumps out in front of it and I think he does a good job—"it's important to give the American people a sense that the government's on their side, that it's carrying their voices into the White House, and that hasn't been happening over the last 7 years." Hillary opens with "I have to agree with everything Barack just said"—sort of her theme of the night—and then talks about a unified Democratic party.

9:47: The Bill Clinton question. "If you can't control the former president now, what will it be like when you're the president?" Clinton laughs and says it's her campaign.

9:46 Stupid question about sex and violence on the teevee. Barack points to parental responsibility, which these Hollywood elites seem to like. He also panders a bit about trailers for slasher movies during American Idol.

9:40: Barack zeroes in: "You have to be right on day one," and gets more big applause. That exchange was a big win for Barack in a night that hasn't had many.

9:37: That was a *terrible* answer for Clinton on Iraq. Rambling, formless, and uninformative, with no one applauding for minutes on end. Wolf zings her—"Are you saying you were naive in trusting President Bush?" Then she tries again. Jaimee says she's just prolonging the agony; Jaimee's right.

9:33: Big applause on the judgment issue for Barack. Clinton is asked why she can't admit it was a mistake; she responds with another bad answer. This is one place where the two-person format really serves Barack—the distinction couldn't be clearer.

9:32: Barack on the surge: "We've set the bar so low for success that it's buried in the sand."

9:28: Judgment, Hillary Clinton, do you have it? Why did she support the war in the first place? If there's a clear winner so far tonight, and I don't think there is, it's Obama-by-decision—Clinton has been much more on the defensive on issues like this and the B-C-B-C dynasty, although Obama is being defensive and has failed to go for the kill. In any event, this was her worst answer yet.

9:20: Clinton goes first again for an Iraq question. That's four or five in a row for her, I think. (Was this format intentional? It's pretty repetitive.) Obama gets more excitement from the crowd by throwing another elbow at John "Let's stay in Iraq for 100 years" McCain, and draws a good contrast with Clinton over the fuzziness of her withdrawal strategy and possible mission creep. He talks about drawing a clear contrast with the Republicans because he never supported the war in the first place. The audience loves it, and so does Bono.

9:15: Obama doesn't get to answer that one? Bullshit!

9:14: Whoa, the Bush-Clinton-Bush-Clinton question! How can you be an agent of change when we've had the same two families in the White House for 30 years? Hillary claims she's being judged on her own merits. Pierce Brosnan isn't buying. She does get some applause for her "takes a Clinton to clean up after a Bush line."

9:10: My whining gets results! Clinton goes first again, this one on a "Why didn't Ted & Caroline endorse you?" This is a question she doesn't seem especially interested in answering. Obama is given the inverse of the question: "What's so bad about the 1990s?" He dodges this question and goes to inspiration: Who can inspire the American people to get re-engaged in their government again?

9:05: Clinton goes fist on the Romney question: why shouldn't only businessmen be elected President? This is of course a great question, but its stupidity does allow Clinton to get in a nice Bush-bash, followed by an Obama Romney-bash: "He hasn't gotten a very good return on his investment in this campaign."

9:02: Wolf asks Clinton what experience as first lady actually qualifies her to be president, the first time I think this question has ever been asked, and someone in the audience audibly "woo"s.

9:00: Experience question directed at Obama. I think he's gone first every question so far. Did he lose the coin flip?

8:54: Obama gets in a flip-flopping charge over the drivers license issue before namechecking Bill Richardson. Clinton denies that she ever flip-flopped and then says that Obama couldn't answer the question when he was asked. Off-screen, Wolf salivates; is the fight about to start?

8:48: Wolf keeps trying to pick a fight, but Obama ain't buying.

8:40: Here comes immigration. The question is oddly phrased—How would you address unemployment, low wages for African-Americans related to immigrant labor—but Obama gets a good round of applause by rightly rejecting the terms as scapegoating. Clinton responds that some amount of scapegoating is appropriate before going to once again repeat the points Barack had just made. (Is it just me or is he going first every time?)

8:33: Raising taxes! Tax and spend liberal Democrats! Oh noes! Obama gets in some really good lines against the current administration on this. (George Costanza, ladies and gentlemen!) He namechecks McCain, too, which is good. Clinton's answer didn't seem to catch fire in quite the same way, though she sure tried to get the audience riled up... Obama takes this point having lost the first round through lack of clarity.

8:26: Email from a longtime reader: He better not fall for the nice Hillary routine or he's dead. Yep.

8:25: More health care. Obama, back to mandates. I have to say that Obama is objectively right on this point. If you want everybody covered, go for single payer—that's what I'd like to see—but if you won't go for single payer, it makes no sense to try and jury-rig universal coverage through punishment mechanisms and fines. What is Clinton's mechanism for enforcement, by the way? Has this ever been explained?

8:14: What policy differences actually exist between you? Clinton goes to universal health care, the mortgage crisis, and the willingness to talk to Evil Dictators, though she begins and ends with a jab at Republicans. (Ed Helms in the audience, ladies and gentlemen!) Obama takes up health care and justifies his mandateless plan, then hits mortgages; Obama believes we should reduce the influence of special interests and lobbyists. One thing is already clear: John Edwards was right about everything.

8:12: Hillary feints towards loving everyone before going right to "Ready on Day 1." Hasn't she heard about Kennedy's "Right on Day 1"? By the way, the flaw in my ability to liveblog this debate quickly becomes evident—I have no respect for anything Clinton says.

8:09: Barack makes his opening statement. He loves John Edwards, the other failed candidates, and Hillary Clinton. Barack loves everyone; he is pure love.

8:04: It's starting now; so far my primary reaction is disquiet at the way this event is being played as a strange proxy for the strike-canceled Oscars. Christina Applegate is in attendance! Who will Brandy endorse? Can we wait to find out?

Via Shankar and a few blogs, Chris Hayes in The Nation makes The Argument that I and others have been talking about all month. It's short, only two pages; you've got plenty of time to read it before the big debate begins.

Insofar as the issues discussed during a presidential campaign are circumscribed by the taboos and pieties of the political and media establishments, they tend to be dispiriting for those of us on the left. Neither front-runner is calling for the nation to renounce its decades-old imperial posture or to end the prison-industrial complex; neither is saying that America's suburbs and car culture are not sustainable modes of living in an era of expensive oil and global warming or pointing out that the "war on drugs" has been a moral disaster and strategic failure, with casualties borne most violently and destructively by society's most marginalized and--a word you won't be hearing from either candidate--oppressed. And yet, this election is far more encouraging (dare I say hopeful?) than any in recent memory. The policy agenda for the Democratic front-runners is significantly further to the left on the war, climate change and healthcare than that of John Kerry in 2004. The ideological implosion of conservatism, the failures of the Bush Administration and, perhaps most important, the shifts in public opinion in a leftward direction on war, the economy, civil liberties and civil rights are all coming together at the same time, providing progressives with the rare and historic opportunity to elect a President with a progressive majority and an actual mandate for progressive change.

The question then becomes this: which of the two Democratic candidates is more likely to bring to fruition a new progressive majority? I believe, passionately and deeply, if occasionally waveringly, that it's Barack Obama.

If you don't get CNN, you can catch tonight's big debate through the Internet here. Just click "Live Video"; it starts at 8 pm. I'll definitely be around; I may even liveblog it.

In the meantime, feast your spirit on a few more O-positive Super Tuesday polls (via Daily Kos):

Georgia (103 delegates)
January 22nd
41% Obama
35% Clinton

January 30th
52% Obama
35% Clinton

California (370 delegates)
January 23rd
49% Clinton
32% Obama

January 29th
43% Clinton
40% Obama

Massachusetts (121 delegates)
January 23rd
59% Clinton
22% Obama

January 28th
43% Clinton
37% Obama

Minnesota
September 23rd
47% Clinton
22% Obama

January 27th
40% Clinton
33% Obama

Connecticut
January 17th
41% Clinton
27% Obama

January 27th
40% Obama
40% Clinton

New Jersey
Quinnipac poll
January 9th
51% Clinton
17% Obama

January 22nd
49% Clinton
32% Obama

He's also inching closer in the Gallup poll...

The latest Rasmussen poll from California has Barack down by only 3%, with a third of the electorate uncommitted or undecided and the now-absent Edwards at 9%. (Via TPM and Daily Kos.) This is encouraging, but it's worth repeating word-for-word what my wise friend Shankar said in the comments to another polling post yesterday:

The thing about these polls is you really can't get a better sample for Obama than Sunday-Tuesday. It's just difficult to believe that the impact of those three days is sustainable by itself - the South Carolina win, the endless talk about the Clinton's negative tactics and divisiveness, the Kennedys endorsement. The intensity of feeling generated by all that is bound to fade at least a bit. He'll need to work hard to keep up the momentum with a strong debate performance and maybe an Edwards or (unlikely) Richardson endorsement.

As I said just down the page, it really all comes down to the debate: a perceived tie probably leads to a tie or close-enough loss on Super Tuesday, a perceived win revs up the enthusiasm and probably pushes him through to a solid win through increased turnout, and a perceived loss lets all the air out of the tires at the worst possible moment. Tonight is very, very important—to return to a metaphor I've used a few times before, it looks like tonight is the night the universe goes ahead and flips its coin.

I don't really have a sense of whether you guys are liking the recent focus on the Democratic primary or whether people just want me to get back to monkey news already—but one way or another I think the primary will be over tonight. There are only really four ways this primary can go from here:

* Knockout punch on Super Tuesday from Barack
* Long hard slog into March, which Barack wins
* Knockout punch on Super Tuesday from Clinton
* Long hard slog into March, which Clinton wins

I may be overly optimistic, but I'd put the likelihood in roughly that order, given that a) we live in a hyperattenuated media environment where the pace is constantly sped up and minor events have huge effects and b) the requirements for the perception of a knockout punch by Barack next Tuesday are much slimmer than a knockout punch for Clinton and as noted yesterday all the trends seem to be going his way.

(What do I mean by the requirements for a perception of a knockout punch? Barack's been down for months in all these states; he's still down in a lot of them. Good results nationally will look like a coronation, especially if he's somehow able to tie or beat her in California and the Northeast. Clinton, on the other hand, needs to beat him badly to be perceived as anything less than a collapsing front-runner.)

However, I have serious reservations about this informal ranking, because there's still at least one huge gamechanger in play: tonight's debate. If Barack does what he needs to do tonight—i.e., look tough, look presidential, stick to his positive tone while still pointing out that the Clinton administration in the 1990s was a pretty colossal failure and that Clinton probably can't even win this November against John McCain, much less win in a blowout like he can—then I think the last undecideds on Super Tuesday break for him and he'll get his knockout. But Barack is notoriously bad at this, and it makes me very nervous for tonight. In nearly every debate thus far his answers have been too cerebral and too slow, and in particular he doesn't respond well to the nasty and usually unfair attacks that are randomly leveled at him by Clinton. I hope he's had a lot of prep, and honestly I hope that he's been playing possum all this time just so he can come out of the gate tonight and blow everybody away.

If he "wins" tonight—winning defined in that peculiar sense of winning the perceptions game in the press, which often reduces to "getting in that one great line that can be played on TV over and over"—I think Barack wins, either quick or slow. But if he loses tonight, I think the undecideds and the Edwards supporters break the other way, Clinton gets her knockout punch on Tuesday and it's all over.

(And I mean that: she wins the nomination and then loses in November, taking the prospects for a progressive political realignment and massive generational shift down with her.)

In other words, tonight's debate is of transcendent importance for American politics, surely the most important of these incredibly stupid and artificial rituals in my lifetime thus far. It's Nixon-Kennedy II: The Rematch. So if you want to see history in the making, for good or for bad, find yourself a place in front of CNN tonight, and hope to hell that Barack brings his debatin' pants.