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Showing posts with label Wisconsin. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Wisconsin. Show all posts

Tuesday, October 14, 2008

Colorado: Obama 52%, McCain 43%

Michigan: Obama 54%, McCain 38%

Minnesota: Obama 51%, McCain 40%

Wisconsin: Obama 54%, McCain 37%
Pollster Peter Brown of Quinnipiac: "Sen. Obama's leads in these four battleground states are as large as they have been the entire campaign. Those margins may be insurmountable barring a reversal that has never been seen before in the modern era in which polling monitors public opinion throughout the campaign."

Thursday, September 11, 2008

Actually existing voter fraud: following up on the Michigan outrage from earlier today, a MetaFilter thread collects vote-suppression stories from across the nation:

Wisconsin
Mississippi
Virginia

Greg Palast has more. More and more I think we need a Voting Rights Act for the 21st Century—attacking the right to vote, increasingly the national policy of the Republican party, is the deepest, darkest betrayal possible in a democracy. The games have to stop. Elections must be fair.

And good for Ohio Secretary of State Jennifer Brunner for taking a stand on it.

Tuesday, February 19, 2008

And... breathe. MSNBC has projected Obama wins Wisconsin. That's 9 in a row, 10 once he's done with Hawaii—a sweep of every contest since Super Tuesday. February has gone even better than I thought it would. But here comes Texas and Ohio...

As always, exits have been leaked and are starting to show up on the Internet. These are good for Obama, but then again nearly all the exits have been good for Obama.

Here's Politco:

Democratic officials with access to exit polls say Senator Obama looks like he’s headed for a huge win in today’s Wisconsin primary. The polls could turn out to be off, as they have in the past. But the officials’ revelation reflects the chatter in the campaigns in advance of the 9 p.m. Eastern poll closing.

The party officials said that if the trends reflect in the interviews with hundreds of Badger State voters, the news out of the primary will be: Obama encroached deeply into three of Clinton’s core groups of voters – women, those with no college degree and those with lower incomes – while giving up none of his own. However, Clinton looked to be winning senior citizens, the officials said.
And here's Halperin with the Fox News exits:
Women: Obama 51%, Clinton 49%

Families with income under 50,000: Obama 51%, Clinton 49%

Independents: Obama 63%, Clinton 34%
Rare to see actual, specific numbers so early.

Polls in Wisconsin close at 9 ET. I've got a lot of work tonight, but I'll try to throw one or two things up if I can.

2:50pm UPDATE: I wrote the draft of this post this morning—now I see that the Clinton camp is officially denying Simon's report. I wanted to put the denial up top so everyone sees it.

Also at Ambinder, I also see, unrelatedly, that Clinton failed to submit a full delegate slate in Pennsylvania—which I find utterly shocking.

--
Not long ago one of my commenters used the phrase "setting fire to the future of the Democratic party" to describe the scorched earth strategy of the Clinton campaign. It was an apt description then, but if there's anything to this report from the Politco, it's worse than my worst imagination of what was possible.

Hillary Clinton’s presidential campaign intends to go after delegates whom Barack Obama has already won in the caucuses and primaries if she needs them to win the nomination.

This strategy was confirmed to me by a high-ranking Clinton official on Monday. And I am not talking about superdelegates, those 795 party big shots who are not pledged to anybody. I am talking about getting pledged delegates to switch sides.
Our only hope is that a knockout blow somewhere in the Texas/Ohio/Pennsylvania circuit ends this insanity and lets the Clintons slink off with some small amount of their dignity intact. But a Longtime Associate writes in echoing my own fears about Wisconsin and how things could go wrong tonight:
once again, obama has been unable to contain expectations. this is a very competitive primary, looking at demographics and polls, and clinton's last-minute attacks may again give her the win, as they did in new hampshire. the cult of obama / style over substance attacks are taking root, to some extent. the last gallup tracking poll shows a lot of movement to clinton. the painfulness of a possible wisconsin loss will be doubled due to the failure to manage expectations.
Fingers crossed tonight, Obamaniacs.

Tuesday, February 12, 2008

While we wait for the polls to close in Virginia (7 pm), Maryland (8 pm), and DC (8 pm), here are a few links that look at the race going forward:

* Via Ezra Klein, The Brennan Center looks at how to fix democracy in America. E.L. Doctorow wins the thread, I think:

I would suggest that the new President direct the Justice Department to institute criminal proceedings against his predecessor for substantive and unjustified violations of the Constitution of the United States.
* Via Daily Kos, a new Wisconsin poll shows a reversal of the results of the last one, taken half a week ago. Now it's Obama 50, Clinton 39.

* Looking ahead to Texas, Texans for Obama tries to explain the inscrutable primary-caucus hybrid they have down there and concludes that Obama could win more of the state's delegates even if he loses the popular primary vote by 5%.

UPDATE: I just noticed there's a new SurveyUSA poll from Ohio, with Obama down 56-39. Looks a lot to me like the margins he's been handily overcoming these last few weeks. Hopefully there's enough time...