You have to earn it: 'Senate Democrats Deny Specter Committee Seniority.' Not sure if Specter's latest flub had any role in this, but it's safe to say that Arlen's not impressing.

Monday tidbits.

* Early polls out of the Senate race in Pennsylvania, post Specter-shuffle.

* An end to the Boston Globe? (UPDATE: No?)

* Bibles and scripts from your favorite TV shows: 1, 2. (Via Zack.)

* Condition your child the Darrow way. (Via Neil.)

The netroots blogs are already talking about a primary challenge to Specter, despite apparent party-boss promises to the contrary. Right now most of the talk centers around the Employee Free Choice Act, which Specter recently decided he opposed back when he was still trying to protect his right flank from Pat Toomey. There's been speculation that Specter's reference to EFCA in his statement earlier today referred only to voting against the bill itself, and that he'd vote to invoke cloture—but it's looking now as if he won't vote for cloture either. In that case put money on the idea of a "miraculous compromise" on EFCA that modifies the language just enough to give Specter cover to flip-flop back. A Ned-Lamont-style primary challenge backed by Labor and the netroots would otherwise be almost inevitable, Rendell's promises notwithstanding, and unlike Connecticut Pennsylvania has a "sore loser" law that would prevent a Liebermanesque run as an independent.

P.S.: Don't miss Steele's response to all this invoking the ugly specter of Arlen Specter's mama.

Line of the day goes to Josh Marshall, writing about the Arlen Specter switch:

Late Update: Needless to say, this is quite a coup for the GOP, likely engineered by Michael Steele as a way to smoke out enemies.

The implosion of the Republican Party continues apace: CNN is reporting that Arlen Specter is switching to the Democratic Party. Crazy! Never thought the little guy would do it.

UPDATE: Lots of "Holy Shits!" being dropped in Left Blogistan today over this—glad I went with "smokes" instead. Also, it occurs to me that now Neil and Srinivas have to vote for Arlen Specter. Tough luck, fellas.

UPDATE: But let's not lose our heads.

The Warren Commission thought they had an open-and-shut case. Three bullets, one assassin. But two unpredictable things happened that day that made it virtually impossible. One, the eight-millimeter home movie taken by Abraham Zapruder while standing by the grassy knoll. Two, the third wounded man, James Tague, who was knicked by a fragment, standing near the triple underpass. The time frame, five point six seconds, determined by the Zapruder film, left no possibility of a fourth shot. So the shot or fragment that left a superficial wound on Tague's cheek had to come from the three shots fired from the sixth floor depository. That leaves just two bullets. And we know one of them was the fatal head shot that killed Kennedy. So now a single bullet remains. A single bullet now has to account for the remaining seven wounds in Kennedy and Connelly. But rather than admit to a conspiracy or investigate further, the Warren Commission chose to endorse the theory put forth by an ambitious junior counselor, Arlen Specter, one of the grossest lies ever forced on the American people. We've come to know it as the "Magic Bullet Theory." This single-bullet explanation is the foundation of the Warren Commission's claim of a lone assassin. Once you conclude the magic bullet could not create all seven of those wounds, you'd have to conclude that there was a fourth shot and a second rifle. And if there was a second rifleman, then by definition, there had to be a conspiracy.

Springboarding off a recent poll showing an incredible 100% of Pennsylvania voters supporting Obama, philly.com claims that Philly turnout is "big. Real big."

The final SurveyUSA polls predict Obama victories in Pennsylvania and Florida, a loss in either of which probably spells the end for John McCain.

PA: Obama 52%, McCain 43%
FL: Obama 50%, McCain 47%

Meanwhile, the Huffington Post says "When it comes to predicting elections, head down to your local betting hall and talk to some gamblers. They have a much better record at forecasting elections." As of right now, the bookies put the odds at a 93-7 Obama advantage...

A little election news I didn't get to blog over the weekend.

* More on the improbable Sarah Palin prank call, including an explanation of how they did it. As with the compromising of Sarah Palin's Yahoo account, the key was social engineering.

"It really took a lot of work," he said.

"We had to go through the Secret Service, the people in her entourage. It's the biggest coup so far. We're proud to add (this prank) to our top hits."

* As a Conservative, I Must Say I Do Quite Like the Cut of this Obama Fellow's Jib.

* There's just no way Lois Lane votes Republican.

* A Pennsylvania judge has ruled against another GOP voter suppression scheme in the state.

* But student votes are still being illegally challenged in Virginia.

* McCain is doing a campaign event in his home state, never a good sign.

* And why did McCain go on Saturday Night Live to participate in a skit mocking not him but his running mate? Things must be getting pretty fratricidal over on Team McCain.

A judge in Pennsylvania has the common sense to rule that backup paper ballots must be provided in the event of extensive voting machine failure.

A federal judge has sided with Pennsylvania voter groups and ordered election officials to provide paper ballots if half the machines break down Tuesday. The state had provided paper ballots only if all machines at a polling place broke down.

Why, oh why, are we using these things at all? The voting machines don't work.

Another good-looking headline: 'Polls Show Obama Ahead In All Three Largest Swing States.'

Florida

Oct 29 Quinnipiac: Obama (D) 47%, McCain (R) 45%

Oct 28 LAT/Bloomberg: Obama (D) 50%, McCain (R) 43%

Oct 27 Datamar: Obama (D) 49%, McCain (R) 44%

Oct 27 Rasmussen: Obama (D) 51%, McCain (R) 47%

Oct 27 Suffolk: Obama (D) 49%, McCain (R) 44%

Oct 27 Zogby: Obama (D) 47%, McCain (R) 47%

Oct 24 Str. Vision (R): McCain (R) 48%, Obama (D) 46%


Ohio

Oct 29 Quinnipiac: Obama (D) 51%, McCain (R) 42%

Oct 28 LAT/Bloomberg: Obama (D) 49%, McCain (R) 40%

Oct 28 SurveyUSA: Obama (D) 49%, McCain (R) 45%

Oct 27 Rasmussen: Obama (D) 49%, McCain (R) 45%

Oct 27 Zogby: Obama (D) 50%, McCain (R) 45%

Oct 26 Univ. of Akron: Obama (D) 45%, McCain (R) 41%

Oct 25 Univ. of Cincinnati: Obama (D) 49%, McCain (R) 46%

Oct 24 PPP (D): Obama (D) 51%, McCain (R) 44%

Oct 24 Str. Vision (R): McCain (R) 48%, Obama (D) 45%


Pennsylvania

Oct 29 Quinnipiac: Obama (D) 53%, McCain (R) 41%

Oct 28 Rasmussen: Obama (D) 53%, McCain (R) 46%

Oct 28 Muhlenberg Tracker: Obama (D) 53%, McCain (R) 41%

Oct 27 Temple Univ.: Obama (D) 50%, McCain (R) 41%

Oct 27 Muhlenberg Tracker: Obama (D) 53%, McCain (R) 40%

Oct 26 Muhlenberg Tracker: Obama (D) 53%, McCain (R) 40%

Oct 25 Muhlenberg Tracker: Obama (D) 52%, McCain (R) 41%

Oct 24 Muhlenberg Tracker: Obama (D) 52%, McCain (R) 40%

Oct 24 Str. Vision (R): Obama (D) 50%, McCain (R) 43%

The Electoral College map is starting to look a lot like my obscene fantasy blowout, with OpenLeft's most recent presidential forecast looking exactly like it. Obama—perhaps capitalizing on my hoped-for Ron Paul effect—has now taken a four-point lead in Montana, and CNN/Time polls from other swing states continue to look bad from Johnny Mc.

As reported and then strenuously denied earlier in the week, he's now shifting advertising to Bush states, signaling he's trying to play defense and possibly just avoid a blowout. Colorado in particular seems to have been abandoned. Pennsylvania remains McCain's Last Stand, and I remain unconvinced he really has any sort of shot there.

More importantly the circular firing squad in the GOP has begun in earnest, most notably symbolized an NRSC Liddy Dole ad put out today that takes as its premise a McCain loss. Republicans are scrambling to be heirs to the throne: witness JoinRudy2012 and Marc Ambinder's argument that Sarah Palin is positioning herself to be next in line in 2012.

All I can say to that is "Yes, please."

The Quinnipiac and Big 10 Battleground polls have terrible news for McCaniacs. We can't really be this far ahead, can we? Via Daily Kos.

The highlights:

Florida (Quinnipiac)
Obama 49
McCain 44

Indiana (Big 10)
Obama 51
McCain 41

Ohio (Big 10)
Obama 53
McCain 41

Ohio (Quinnippiac):
Obama 52
McCain 38

Pennsylvania (Big 10)
Obama 52
McCain 41

Pennsylvania (Quinnippiac)
Obama 53
McCain 40

Can McCain really complete in Pennsylvania? OpenLeft and the Field consider the logic (if any) behind this new, last gambit.

Late night links.

* Honeymoon destination for the stars Iceland accepts an IMF bailout, the first industrialized nation to receive one since the U.K. in 1976 (by some accounts) or South Korea in 1997 (by others).

* 270towin.com has your poll closing schedule for election night.

* Everyone is talking about tonight's revelation that the RNC has spent over $150,000 on clothing Sarah Palin and family. Why, that's almost 400 haircuts!

* John McCain has a rough day in Pennsylvania.



* But it's not all bad news for McCain—rumors abound of a leaked Obama internal poll showing Obama up by only two points.

McCain's "barnstorming" Pennsylvania today, giving credence to yesterday's reports that he's going "all in" on PA. Meanwhile, Barack Obama is officially the president of newspaper endorsements, lots of people are early voting and most of them are Democrats, a before-and-after debate poll shows McCain hemorrhaging support, and Democrats are still looking unbelievably strong in North Carolina. Happy days are here again.

CNN's John King says the McCain camp has given up on Colorado alongside Iowa and New Mexico.

They are now finishing with a very risky strategy. Win Florida... Win Nevada, that is a state that is now critical to the McCain math even though it is only five electoral votes. And here is the biggest risk of all: they say yes, they have to win North Carolina, yes, they have to win Ohio, yes, they have to win Virginia— trailing or dead even in all those states right now—but they are betting, Wolf, on coming back and taking the state of Pennsylvania. It has become the critical state now in the McCain electoral scenario, and they are down 10, 12, even 14 points in some polls there...

I hate to give free advice to McCain, but this is lunatic. The RCP average for Pennsylvania is +11.7 Obama. Pollster.com has it at 15.2%. Nate Silver puts McCain's numbers in PA at 2%.

How bad are McCain's internals in Colorado, if he thinks he has a better chance in PA? He has no chance in PA.

FYI: if he does win PA, I will personally burn both Neil and Srinivas in effigy. Sujata too.

UPDATE: Nick at Cogitamus points at one thing that distinguishes Pennsylvania from other potential McCain last-chances: no early voting.

Presumably this has something to do with information based on Colorado's early vote totals; the McCain campaign must believe that they can't achieve a large enough Election Day victory to offset Obama's advantage in early voting.

Of course, Pennsylvania—Pittsbugh and Philadelphia with Alabama in the middle, in Carville's famous phrase—is also more ripe than Colorado for racially coded campaigning, as Shankar points out in the comments.

Pre-debate links.

* Those McCain/Palin rallies aren't getting any better.

In the latest instance of inflammatory outbursts at McCain-Palin rallies, a crowd member screamed "treason!" during an event on Tuesday after Sarah Palin accused Barack Obama of criticizing U.S. troops.

Whether or not McCain and Palin can hear these words being shouted at them on the stump, these stories have been in the news for two days now. This is a case where silence really is deafening: when your supporters are screaming out "Treason!" and "Kill him!" you have a moral obligation to step in and put a stop to it. Hell, even Rudy Giuliani knows that.

* Good news/bad news: Apparently Brokaw never agreed to the no followups rule, so the campaigns are expecting there to be followups after all. That's the good news. The bad news: Brokaw ♥s McCain.

* How McCain destroyed the best brand in politics, with more at Washington Monthly.

* They found Sarah Palin's doodles. Rachel Maddow had some fun with this last night. You know, I'm beginning to think this VP choice speaks poorly of McCain's judgment.

* Also at Washington Monthly: analysis of Obama's latest, very good ad.

"He's out of ideas. Out of touch. And running out of time. But with no plan to lift our economy up, John McCain wants to tear Barack Obama down, with smears that have been proven false. Why? McCain's own campaign admits that if the election is about the economy, he's going to lose. But as Americans lose their jobs, homes and savings, it's time for a President who'll change the economy. Not change the subject."

* And despite what you sometimes hear in the comments of this blog, Pennsylvania is not a swing state.

Morning politics.

* Landslide ascendant? New polls from Quinnipiac show Obama breaking away in Florida (51-43), Ohio (50-42) and Pennsylvania (54-39). Lots of reasons for this; in addition to the economic crisis that Ben Smith highlights, there's also McCain's increasingly erratic behavior and the snowballing unpopularity of Sarah Palin. Nate Silver of 538.com was on Countdown last night trumpeting a predicted 330-207 Electoral College blowout—an opinion Dick Morris of all people would call conservative—and OpenLeft has a great chart from the Princeton Election Meta-Analysis showing the distribution of all possible outcomes.

* Which means it's time for McCain to get nasty. Again.

* Speaking of Palin, I'm reserving judgment on the debate until I actually see it. It's very hard to say how the expectations game is going to work; traditionally, the candidate perceived as unimpressive benefits from asymmetric expectations and thereby "wins," and in that sense Palin can't lose. But I'm not sure there's ever been a candidate as manifestly unprepared as Sarah Palin—and basically any mistake she makes, even relatively trivial ones, will serve to ratify the Tina-Fey caricature that has achieved critical cultural mass. In that sense she can't win. So I have no idea what's going to happen. Her recent interviews with Katie Couric have been no better than the early ones—she famously reads all newspapers but won't admit or has no idea what pro-life actually means and it's now been confirmed she couldn't discuss any court decision beyond Roe v. Wade—and the Republicans are working overtime both to prep her and to pre-spin the debate. They're now strongly attacking Gwen Ifill all over. If they're going to cry about it, fine, let's replace Ifill—is Katie Couric available?

* Explosive breaking news from Troopergate probably won't help Palin's popularity.

* What is it about being mayor of New York City that causes people to lust after emergency powers? Now Bloomberg wants an emergency third term.

* And Google endorses marriage equality.

The new SurveyUSA poll puts Obama up 6 (!) in Virgnia, 51% to 45%. (Looking at the trend and the internals, I think it's fair to say that those pay equity ads should be airing nationwide.) I've been a VA booster for months because the fact is that without Virginia, McCain just can't win; taking the states which Obama seems to have locked down (the Kerry states - NH + IA + NM), he just needs nine more for a tie (which he wins) and ten for an outright victory.

So flipping either Colorado or Virginia, by themselves, is enough, provided he doesn't slip in Michigan or Pennsylvania—and right now he's ahead in all four...

Politics bites.

* Daily Kos's BarbinMD marvels at the quick education of Sarah Palin: from not knowing the most basic facts about Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac yesterday to writing an op-ed on the subject in the Wall Street Journal today.

* The first post-convention swing-state polls are coming out, and the news suggests a tight race, albeit one our side still has a slight edge in.

• In Colorado, Obama leads by a 49%-46% margin, actually an improvement for him since McCain's 49%-48% edge three weeks ago. Both results are within the margin of error.

• In Florida, the race is tied 48%-48%, compared to a 48%-46% McCain edge from about three weeks ago.

• In Ohio, McCain leads 51%-44%, compared to a 48%-43% lead for McCain from almost three weeks ago. Rasmussen has been the most favorable pollster for McCain in Ohio.

• In Pennsylvania, Obama has a slim 47%-45% edge, not significantly different from his 48%-45% lead two and a half weeks ago.

• In Virginia, McCain has a 49%-47% lead, not significantly changed from a 48%-47% McCain lead from over three weeks ago.

McCain needs both Virginia (13 EVs) and Colorado (9 EVs) to win, especially in light of the fact that he likely won't retain New Mexico (5 EVs) and Iowa (7 EVs), states Bush carried in his 286-251 victory over John Kerry in 2004. Likewise, if he loses Ohio or Florida, it's game over, and there's been a lot of speculation that the Palin pick could backfire with Jewish voters in Florida.

For Obama's part, he's really only playing defense in Michigan and (to a lesser extent) Pennsylvania, two states I would be quite surprised to see him lose.

* McCain comes out hard against Obama for... having the same position John McCain himself has held for years.

* And, via TPMtv, even Fox News's Chris Wallace has had enough of the Bridge to Nowhere lie.